Historically real estate has seen about 4% appreciation. If we apply that to the Portland real estate market since 2000 when the Index was set to 100, we can see that the market is still below the line.
As the market climbs, the number of properties with negative equity decreases. We’re looking at a window of roughly October 2005 to November 20008 where the market was above where it is now. If we had 4% appreciation from here on out, it would be July 2015 when we matched July 2008’s 180.6, thus wiping out all underwater purchases statistically.
The crystal ball doesn’t expect 2014 to repeat 2013’s 13% year-over-year increase but we can see that there is some room to beat the market average.