Archive for the ‘Case Shiller Index’ Category:

February’s Case Shiller Index was released today.  CNN’s headline reads, “Home Prices Lowest Since 2002.” For Portland, home prices sit at July 2004 prices: 129.60 which represents a .36 slide from January’s Case Shiller Index.  Case Shiller reports lag 60 days and are released on the last Tuesday of the month.

After the Index was set to 100 in January 2000, Portland seemed to lag about a year behind the rest of the country.  The majority of the areas tracked started their rise and hit their peak about a year ahead of Portland.  In recent years though it appears that Portland has fallen in line with the Composite indexes.  The Dallas chart line is interesting as they never saw the highs or lows that the majority of the country experienced.  Flat seems to be the rule for their market: talk about real estate being local!

Trying to compare RMLS Market Action to Case Shiller doesn’t work.  They reports use different areas, methodology and the most up-to-date reports are always a month apart.  RMLS reported the lowest inventory in years when the March report was released a couple of weeks ago which may put some upward pressure on prices.  It’s too hard to tell what factors will have the biggest impact on the market.  Does low market inventory, low interest rates and highest levels of affordability in years trump market jitters, foreclosures, political outcomes and economic concerns or vice versa?

Source: S&P Indices and Fiserv

Portland’s Case Shiller report for January 2012 looks like deja vu all over again.  The Index dropped 2% from December, mirroring the start to 2011.  In 2011 the Index posted losses for the first three months of the year followed by six straight months of gains.  The small gains fueled a lot of optimism and talk of “we’ve reached the bottom” but the last quarter of 2011 gave all of the gains back with three consecutive down months.  At today’s 129.96 the Portland real estate market is close to July 2004 prices and a new low since July 2007′s peak.

A couple of weeks ago when RMLS Market Action for February was released most of the metrics were positive.  Case Schiller looks at a seven county MSA versus and has a sixty day lag versus RMLS’s “Portland Metro” which is a five county area and reported on two weeks after the end of the previous month.  They also have different methodologies so making direct comparisons is difficult.

You’re going to have to make you own determination as to whether “Now is a Great Time to Buy” or whether we’re yet to see the bottom.  While Portland has suffered, a quick look down the list shows a lot of markets have experienced a lot worse.  Las Vegas peaked at 234.  The Index was set to 100 for all markets January 2000.  Washington DC has remained the strongest of the bunch.  When were there in 2010 a local said its because, “politicians arrive when they are elected but then they never leave: they become lobbyists.”

Portland’s Case Shiller Index for June 2011 is up two one hundredths from May.  The change, while  nonexistent for all intensive purposes, marks the third consecutive month of increases in the Index.  The last time there were three consecutive months was the same period last year.  Last year’s increases were then followed by nine months of straight decline until this recent run. During the 2010 run, the Index gained 5.12 points.  During the same period this year it gained 1.85 points.  Today’s 132.67 is 14 points below June 2010.  Today’s index matches September 2004′s. (more…)

The title of this post might be stretching it a little but in light of most of the recent death-of-real-estate-media coverage I’m taking a little liberty with it.  The May 2011 Case Shiller Index for Portland is up 1.66 points.  That’s the highest increase since May 2010 and only the second increase, joining last month’s .17 point increase, this year. In fact, it’s the second highest monthly increase since May 2007.

Now for the gut check.  Two months of increases does not make for a recovery.  We can see that five of six Aprils and Mays  in 2008, 2009 and 2010 were also increases which were followed by declines through the fall and winter months.  Last year the market managed three months of consecutive gains before rattling off nine straight losses.  During the real estate boom the Index increased 32 consecutive months between February 2004 and September 2006.

Today’s index mostly closely matches November 2004.  The Case Shiller report for “Portland” is the seven county MSA.  It runs from Yamhill County to the south to Skamania County in Washington. (more…)

“How’s the market?”  Our business coach wisely points out that, “It depends.”  What are you trying to do in the market?  The Case Shiller report for April 2011 was published last week.  If you read didn’t read anything more than the headline in last week’s Portland Business Journal or didn’t make it all the way to the last paragraph, “Portland Home Prices Drop 9.2%” you’d have missed one of the rare bright spots in what has been a very challenging market: the index rose for the first time in almost a year.  Conversely, the Oregonian headline reads, “Housing prices tick up in Portland and U.S., but gain might be short-lived.”  And to be fair, on a seasonally adjusted basis the Index is still down and both headlines are accurate. (more…)

Case Shiller’s monthly real estate report was released this morning.  Portland lost a little more ground in February (Case Shiller reports with a sixty day lag and “Portland” is the seven county MSA).  The current Portland index of 133.66 is nearly identical to October 2004′s 133.6.  Portland peaked in July 2007 at 186.51.  At that the same time Seattle peaked  at 192.92 and has now dropped just below Portland levels to 132.85.  (more…)

The Case Shiller index lags real time by sixty days so we won’t be able to see if their results match RMLS for Portland real estate January.  The Case Shiller Index dropped from 139.92 to 138.23.  That’s a pretty small drop compared to the 10% loss reported by RMLS in their last report for average sales price.  The reports use different methodology and areas to define “Portland.” (more…)

Tuesday’s Case Shiller reporting November 2010 was of no surprise: down from the previous month.  The Index for Portland is 139.92 which puts the Portland real estate market back where it was in March 2005.

The 139.92 is actually an average of the three price tiers in Portland.  For November:

• Low (under $207,443): 144.00
• Middle ($207443 – $300,273): 141.37
• Upper (over $300,273): 137.04

The low tier peaked at 199.87, middle at 186.71 and the high at 180.83- all around July 2007. (more…)

I titled last month’s Case Shiller report, “Reasons Fear and Optimism.”  The Portland real estate market didn’t fare well in October according to the report released this morning:

While the composite housing prices are still above their spring 2009 lows, six markets – Atlanta, Charlotte, Miami, Portland (OR), Seattle and Tampa – hit their lowest levels since home prices started to fall in 2006 and 2007, meaning that average home prices in those markets have fallen beyond the recent lows seen in most other markets in the spring of 2009.

Whereas Portland held out in the top three as the national market started to dive (with Seattle and Charlotte).  Our city has fallen into the bottom tier with this month’s report.  Today’s pricing is roughly the same as April 2005 for the Portland MSA which is the seven county area used to calculate the Case Shiller Index.  David Blitzer doesn’t mince words: (more…)

Portland’s Case Shiller Index for September 2010 took a  1.9% hit from August and is now at 144.30, May 2005 levels.  The index is down 3.6% since September 2009.  On a national basis the Composite 10 Index was down .5% for the month but up 1.6% in the last 12 months.  The Composite 20 Index was down .7% for the month and is up .6% since September 2009.   The Composite 10′s 161.25 matches December 2003 and the 20′s 147.49 lines up at about October 2003. (more…)