Silly me for thinking there was too many sellers expecting to sell.

Will this same pattern happen again?

Activity slows down considerably around the holidays but we do see a lot of relocation during that period. People are here on vacation, they start work the in the new year etc. Having your home listed during the holidays is a pain in the butt but you also capture buyers who aren’t normally here. A house trimmed for the holidays has a certain amount of additional charm too (or a certain amount of total tackiness). Some are motivated to purchase a home right around the end of the year so they are in place for the holidays or seeking a tax advantage.

From 2007-2011, December had the lowest number of new listings for that year. The following January, new listings picked up. I didn’t look at reports prior to that. December 2008 became a non-existent real estate month after the snow storms. Inventory for the following January was 19.2 months. That’s not really pertinent to this discussion but a “fun fact.”

Is there a significance of comparing the number of new listings in 2011 v 2012? I think your implying that there isn’t any significance and I think you may be right. They’re down 16.2%. Does that tell us anything unto itself? By adding the number of closings (up 18.3%) we get to calculate inventory and think we “like” since it is a ratio. At this point in the downturn if you thought we might be at or near the bottom you might be inclined to hang out for a year or two to list. I would recommend taking a longer term view than a year or two if you are hoping for appreciation to make a difference. The nature of a market is that some will continue to list for any number of reasons. We listed our house briefly but took it off when we became eligible to refinance. We needed to sell under the old loan. We don’t now. We’re probably not the only ones.

Seasonality factors are important. Few people shop for or buy homes between Thanksgiving and Christmas. Those are sales that close in January so January closings are always low. December had more closing because those sales were made in October and early November. January to January comparisons are therefore more telling.

This seasonality also affects inventory since RMLS calculates it by inventory divided by closings. The low closings skews the number up. If they used “pendings” instead it would be around 4 months.

If you look at absolute inventory numbers, there were 10,634 properties on the market on January 30th and there were 11,461 in December, a 7.2% decrease in inventory.

http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/oregon/portland/