Archive for the ‘Portland Real Estate’ Category:

What’s my home worth? The answer is the foundation for intelligent decision making. No matter what type of evaluation is done, the result is a matter of opinion. There are three basic types of home valuations:

  1. Completely automated reports like those from Zillow (Zestimate), Trulia or our Market Snapshot, which is a Realtor.com product. These reports have no human interaction and may be online or emailed to you on a periodic basis. This is the instant gratification method.
  2. The Realtor generated Comparative Market Analysis (CMA). These reports can be very broad or drill down to very specific criteria. This the report that we create to advise clients regarding pricing the property that they are buying or selling. This is the free report that we are offering here and can take anywhere from five minutes of hands-on time to over an hour.  The final valuation may be manually calculated and adjusted or formula based.  View a Sample CMA and sign up for yours:

 

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Interested in your home’s value? We will follow up with you to create a customized home valuation.
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  1. The appraisal: this report is done by a licensed appraiser most commonly for the bank’s benefit (if you were paying cash, an appraisal would be optional). The fee for an appraisal starts around $350 and can climb into the thousands depending on what is being appraised. $450 is a good budgeting number for a single family, owner occupied appraisal. Appraisals for investment property cost more as rent rates and income potential are examined.  A full appraisal is often used for valuation purposes on estates, refinancing and purchases.

 

RMLS inventory July 2013July 2013′s RMLS Market Action was published yesterday.  Inventory remains tight and consistent at 2.8 months and other metrics are in positive territory as well.   The average sales price is $326,500 compare to $287,000 this time last year.

Here’s a metric we’ve never looked at before: the ratio of accepted offers to closed offers.  We could call it the “Likelihood to Close.”  Year-to-date there have been 15,467 closed transactions and 17,406 accepted offers.  That’s and 89% Likelihood to Close factor.

For the same period in 2010, there was a 92% Likelihood to Close.  In 2007 94% of accepted offers closed.  What does it mean?

Even in a tighter inventory market than we’ve seen in years, transactions are more likely to fail.  My personal opinion is that the main cause is buyers are more cautious than ever before and are more willing to walk away.

 

Portland Makes Top TenPortland Makes Top Ten

I haven’t been the best at writing timely posts lately but a recent post garnered me a quote in the CNBC Top 10 Turnaround Towns for 2013 where Portland came in 8th.

“Our team has been closing a record number of transactions in the last few months,” Turner Team realtor Charles Turner wrote in a recent blog post. “These numbers exceed the month that the First Time Buyer Credit expired and any of the peak months of the 2005-2007 ‘crazy’ market before the crash,” he said.

Of course, it becomes a case of be careful what you wish for. The double-digit jump in the average sale price is “frightening,” Turner writes. “Hopefully the market will settle down to an appreciation rate of around 5 percent. That should be sustainable.”

I wrote that just as interest rates were spiking.  July was our best month yet but August has cooled which seems to mirror both our local and the national markets.

RMLS Market Action June 2013June 2013′s RMLS Market Action shows a slight cooling compared to May but still way ahead of May 2012.  Inventory climbed to 2.9 months which is still an indicator of a seller’s market.  Six months has traditionally been viewed as the neutral point between a sellers market and buyers market but I think in this “new” housing market we’ll see that number drop to somewhere between 4.5. to five months as buyers are going to be more willing to let deals die as the market settles in.  Regardless, we don’t want to see an extended period of time in very low inventory numbers as it’s been proven that the market cannot sustain rapid run-ups.

That said, our team has been closing a record number of transactions in the last few months.  These numbers exceed the month that the First Time Buyer Credit expired and any of the peak months of the 2005-2007 “crazy” market before the crash.  We’re educating buyers that they need to put their best foot forward as it’s likely that they’ll be competing with other offers.  Cash is king but their are lots of other terms that can cause the seller to accept financed offers or offers with preferable terms.

The average sales price in Portland Metro area is up over $300k for the first time in years at $302,700.  That’s a 13.8% increase which is  frightening.  At that rate, we’ll be at $344,472 next year and $392,009 in 2015.  That’s bad for a myriad of reasons.  Hopefully the market will settle down to an appreciation rate of around five percent.  That should be sustainable.

Interest rates are now a hot item in the news.  Rates spiked which greatly reduces buyer’s buying power.  In combination with rapidly increasing prices, we’ll see buyers priced out of the market which will reduce the buyer pool.

sb10062782e-001Air conditioning in Portland?  Our heat wave is tapering off to more comfortable conditions but it’s unlikely we’ve seen the last of the hot days of summer.

Heading over to our trusty RMLS search we find 717 homes for sale in Portland out of 2151 active listings have central air conditioning (33%).  Digging into the numbers we find it’s an amenity that is price-range driven:
  • 0-$300,000: 941 active listings, 172 with AC; 18%
  • $301,000-$500,000: 610 active listings, 225 with AC; 37%
  • $501,000-$700,000: 270 active listings, 125 with AC; 46%
  • Over $700,000: 326 active listings, 195 with AC; 60%

Thinking about installing AC or servicing what you’ve got?  The link goes to a Google Map for AC in Portland.

 

RMLS Market Action May 2013Housing Inventory = Number of Closed Transaction/Number of Active Listings = Two point five months!  The last time we saw Portland Metro housing inventory this low was in May, 2006.  May’s RMLS Market Action tells us that every metric of the Portland real estate market is strengthening.  Days on Market is 85 days compared to 152 days in January of 2009 when we also had 19.2 months of housing inventory.

Close in areas have even lower inventory:

  • North Portland: 1.9 months
  • NE Portland: 1.9 months
  • SE Portland: 2.1 months
  • West Portland: 2.3 months
  • NW Portland: 2.0 months
  • Lake Oswego/West Linn: 3.1 months
  • Beaverton/Aloha: 1.5 months.
  • Tigard/Wilsonville: 2.1 months

Most striking is Beaverton/Aloha’s 1.5 months.  We’ve typically seen the close-in Portland areas with the lowest inventories but recently we’ve seen the ‘burbs competing for the tightest inventory title.

What does it all mean?  Buyers have to put their best foot forward to compete with other buyers.  Multiple offers are not unusually and escalation clauses are used by some agents though I would argue against their use (an escalation clause says that buyer is willing to pay $X over the next highest offer).  Rapid increases in prices can cause appraisal issues.  If the appraiser can’t find comparable sales to support the price there may be problems: is the buyer going to bring in the difference?  Is the seller going to agree to lower the price?  With a cash deal, no appraisal is necessary which strengthens the “cash is king” theory which means financed offers need to compete on other terms.

Potential sellers have reasons to be optimistic about the current market.  An accurately priced house is going to sell in any market but this market is stronger than anything we’ve seen in the last five years.  Will it continue to run up?  For how long and will it level off or dive?  The winter months could be concerning as typical seasonal declines occur and we should start to have a clearer picture of how new laws and court rulings impact the foreclosure market.  There are very few REO properties for sale right now, if there is an increase in bank listings it will push market values down as the majority of those properties are typically lower priced.

 

The Portland Case Shiller Index continues its upward trajectory.  The latest report, March 2013, was released this morning.  Portland’s index has climbed to 145.52.  That’s a 16 point game from where the index was at this time last year!  The rapid increase borders on being a little scary but it also is a huge help to homeowners who have been thinking about selling but have not because they did not have any equity, or enough equity, to meet their goals.  Each uptick pulls more owners into the black.  This time last year we were at April 2004 index levels, now, the current 145 matches April 2005′s index.

When the Index hits 150, the window of underwater owners drops to less than four years: July 2005 – March 2009.  There was close to an eight year window of negative equity owners when the market (appears to have) bottomed out  at 129 (July 2004 – March 2012).  Keep in mind that these are Metro statistics that span the seven county MSA and not localized.  The methodology hasn’t changed so the comparisons over time are valid but what happened in Inner Southeast Portland does not mirror what happened in Skamania County.

As I said above, and previously, rapid increases are a scary.  History shows that to be the case.  There are lots of factors that make up the increase and we could see any of those change at any time.  In fact, interest rates are creeping up- they’re still historically very low but not as low as they were.  There are fewer bank owned homes on the market due to the Oregon Supreme Court pending ruling on MERS and the transfer of foreclosed homes.

Portland Case Shiller March 2013

Remember mixed tapes?  My ex-girlfriend from college made me one that included Barenaked Ladies ‘If I had a Million Dollars” which include the lyrics, “If I had a million dollars / well, I’d buy you a house.”  If you decided to buy a million dollar house in Portland today you’d have a choice of 128 active properties.  That includes all residential properties within Portland city limits.

If you were feeling particularly flush, perhaps you’re the lucky person in Florida who won the PowerBall jackpot, after taxes you could by all 128 properties and still have around $77M to play with!  Portland’s most expensive listing today is $4,995,000 up on Skyline BLVD.

Here’s a link to all the Million dollar homes listed in Portland right now. The properties shown are constantly updated and will vary from the 128 listed as I write.  The ten most expensive are:

See all Real estate in the city of Portland.
(all data current as of 4/23/2014)

  1. 5 beds, 5 full, 2 part baths
    Home size: 8,752 sq ft
    Lot size: 20,908 sqft
    Broker reciprocity icon
  2. 5 beds, 3 full, 2 part baths
    Home size: 6,557 sq ft
    Lot size: 33,976 sqft
    Broker reciprocity icon
  3. 5 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths
    Home size: 3,478 sq ft
    Lot size: 6.35 ac
    Broker reciprocity icon
  4. 6 beds, 4 full, 3 part baths
    Home size: 8,683 sq ft
    Lot size: 14,810 sqft
    Broker reciprocity icon
  5. 5 beds, 4 full, 2 part baths
    Home size: 6,954 sq ft
    Lot size: 1.28 ac
    Broker reciprocity icon
  6. 4 beds, 5 full, 2 part baths
    Home size: 5,825 sq ft
    Lot size: 26,136 sqft
    Broker reciprocity icon
  7. 5 beds, 6 full, 2 part baths
    Home size: 8,204 sq ft
    Lot size: 2.17 ac
    Broker reciprocity icon
  8. 5 beds, 4 full, 3 part baths
    Home size: 7,605 sq ft
    Lot size: 1.17 ac
    Broker reciprocity icon
  9. 5 beds, 5 full, 1 part baths
    Home size: 6,768 sq ft
    Lot size: 1.66 ac
    Broker reciprocity icon
  10. 5 beds, 4 full, 1 part baths
    Home size: 7,626 sq ft
    Lot size: 28.55 ac
    Broker reciprocity icon

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

 

Carrington Real Estate Services RebrandOn May 7th, the Atlantic & Pacific Real Estate name went the way of the dinosaurs and we rebranded to Carrington Real Estate Services.  Over the last 18 months you’ve grown accustomed to the orange and green signs outside of our listed properties.  Now you’ll see our fresh new look of the Carrington Real Estate Services brand in and around Portland.  The Turner Team, the individual agents in our office and management remains unchanged but now we have the ability to leverage the Carrington name in all of our efforts.  Carrington Real Estate Services is now in 25 states and growing.

Turner Team Carrington Real Estate Services

RMLS Inventory April 2013Bad blogger, bad blogger.  When you realize your last post was March’s RMLS Market Action report and April’s came out two days ago it’s time to start typing.  So here we go.  There’s no real surprise the inventory is low.  At  3.1 months that mean that if we stopped taking new listings, the 6498 listings would be gone just over three months at the current rate of sales.  That’s a Metro Portland number so you’re going to find some variation in more localized areas: North Portland has 2.5 months, NE Portland 2.1 months, SE Portland 2.6 months and West Portland 2.1 months of inventory.

Inventory is a based on the rate of closings which is up 16.4% from 2012 and the number of new listings which is also up 4.4% compared to last year.  It doesn’t take much of a memory to remember when we had 19.2 months of inventory!

We’ve seen a 15.3% increase in average sales price from a year ago.  We’ve proven that the market can not sustain double digit grown but we will see some downward pressure on that when the Oregon Supreme Court rules on the legality of MERS (electronic mortgage transfers),  If they rule in the banks’ favor, they will revert to the quicker non-judicial foreclosures.  If the court rules in the plaintiff’s favor the judicial foreclosure process that is already taking place will eventually run its course and those, usually lower priced, homes will come to market.  Either way, bank owned foreclosures have not gone away; they’re stuck in the system.  I don’t believe that banks are holding sell-able inventory from the market.

All information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified.

This content last updated on 4/23/14 3:39 AM PDT. Some properties which appear for sale on this web site may subsequently have sold or may no longer be available.

The content relating to real estate for sale on this web site comes in part from the IDX program of the RMLS™ of Portland, Oregon. All real estate listings are marked with the RMLS™ logo, and detailed information about these properties includes the names of the listing brokers.

Listing content is © 2014 RMLS™, Portland, Oregon.

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