September RMLS Market Action
By Charles Turner
RMLS Market Action hit my inbox just a few minutes ago. It is, as they say, ain’t that pretty. Inventory is up significantly to 8.6 months, levels not seen since January 2001 (8.5 months). January 2000 hit 10.1 months and we may take a run at that as the “winter slowdown” takes hold. History says the market slows in winter months. One note on the “what is a buyer’s market” question is that once upon a time I was told that six months was the balance between buyer’s/seller’s markets.
It is interesting that even in a cooling market that the number of new listings really didn’t change year on year for the month. The obvious concern (or joy for some) is the drop in pending and closed sales. Will price drops on existing listings will help move them? Are new listings hitting the market priced appropriately? There seem to be plenty of able buyers in our market and there are willing buyers. It is a question of when the rest will become willing? Rhetorically, it will be when prices drop more or when they decide the market has reached an equilibrium and the time to buy.
We’re on a record pace to double “inventory in months”…
http://www.portlandrealestateblog.com/realestate/2007/07/aikia-portlands.html
Wow. The rate of deceleration is impressive. We may be a year to 18 months behind places like CA, Pheonix and FL, but at this rate we’ll catch up pretty quick. This sales dip is a direct result of the credit-crunch that developed in July and caused tightening lending standards in August.
there seem to be plenty of able buyers in our market and there are willing buyers.
But the numbers you post above, Charles, say otherwise. There my be willing “buyers” and there may be able “buyers”, but I suspect that many of the willing “buyers” aren’t able and many of the able “buyers” aren’t willing (and thus arn’t really buyers at this point). If there were plenty of willing & able buyers right now, I don’t think we’d be seeing an 8.6 month inventory. As JP pointed out in the previous thread a buyer is someone who is both willing and able.
So were the 1866 closed transactions done against the buyer’s will?
Not fair that someone is leaking Market Action four days before it is released to the rest of us…
So were the 1866 closed transactions done against the buyer’s will?
But a year ago there were 2506 closed sales. 640 fewer buyers. And 669 fewer pendings than last year. More sellers, less buyers.
BTW: the August tightening of lending standards was really the 2nd wave for this year. The first wave was in February/March. Prior to that wave we saw the ABX indices take a dive. It happended again in June/July, then they stabilized after the Fed cut in September. Guess what? They’re taking a nosedive again. More trouble ahead in the credit markets?
It’s your blog but posting about Measure 49 and not allowing discussion is cheesy. This measure has the potential to change Oregon drastically if it fails.
The soullessness of the real estate industry shows in their endorsement of $$$ over all else.
“Not fair that someone is leaking Market Action four days before it is released to the rest of us…
”
No sympathy here.
Its bordeline criminal that the only widely quoted stats on real estate are from the real estate industry. Talk about conflict of interest.
Charles, when was the last time we had 8.6 in *August* (normally a good month)?
ABX is so old news. The acronym of the moment is SIV. The pain in the mortgage market is just beginning.
palapahomeboy: You’re probably right, there may not be an ABX index pretty soon; no demand for new issues.
And the plan to solve this SIV problem? A Super SIV of course! (SIVs basically risky investments made by the big banks and hedgies into things like Subprime MBSs – and all off the balance sheet! So very convenient! Enron anyone?) “Hey, what’s that pile of crap the rug is sitting on?”
I know you have discussed the highest priced homes in the past, but I thought you may find this of interest:
“World’s Most Expensive Homes 2007″
http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/103723/World's-Most-Expensive-Homes-2007
(Article Provided by Forbes)