The Standard & Poor’s Case –Shiller report is pretty much what we expected having recently looked at declining prices over the last few months in a previous post. The weight of the recent months has finally brought Portland year over year prices down -.5%. That’s compared to the 20-City Composite Index which dropped 11%. Once again, Charlotte and Seattle join Portland as the top three in the index.

The Oregonian reports that Portland was buoyed by Californian’s moving to the area but, “that’s over now.” Maybe I missed the news of the CA/OR border patrol sending Californians south at the border. My clients yesterday must have slipped through. Their plan is to be here in August in time to put their kids into school. I must have dreamt about coffee with a San Francisco family and the subsequent emails last week. Maybe I have the only two Californians moving here but broad media strokes imply that part of the market is dead are wrong. What we don’t see much of now is the California investor who is selling one property there to buy two or more here anymore though. A good portion of our clients now are moving from out-of-state to Portland. We just had dinner with friends that moved here who felt priced out of the Vancouver, BC market.

It does seem like we are seeing more media balance. Portland Monthly’s “Buy Here Now” edition is on newsstands and unless I heard wrong, I thought KGW’s business piece last night was brighter than they had been reporting in recent months. I think it underscores that there is little agreement and no defined outcome and that “Portland Home Values Take First Dip” might be a little late to the party as a front page headline caption. Most of the real estate blogs have been acknowledging that declines in the most recent data would weigh numbers downwards and that it was a matter of time. As I underscored to both of my recent California clients, you have to look at the whole picture to make your decision. Many think that there is a 20% plus correction coming (the Oregonian posits 15%). I don’t see it being that drastic but in poker parlance, we’re pretty close to being all in.

The Oregonian story ends, “There is an unsustainable army [of contractors, bankers and brokers who depend on housing for a paycheck].” True, very true. Regular readers know that I take a pretty Darwinian stance to the real estate industry: many will leave the business and the strong will survive. In a tougher market, quality and diligence will make a difference for all three industries quoted above.

As I alluded to earlier, we’re on vacation now (this will post from LAX when we land). Our business and clients are well covered while we are gone and we’ll be in contact. I do hope to write a post about Mexican real estate and what it means as an American looking at that market (not that we’re buying). I attended a “seminar” at the Mac Club a few months back that was touted as, “buying and owning land in Mexico” but it was really, “Buy in our resort in Mexico and if you have any questions, contact an attorney or banker.”