Case Shiller Report June 24, 2008
By Charles Turner
Today’s Case Schiller Report has Portland up .3% between April and March (click on the image to enlarge). One month of positive after months of decline doesn’t give us much to sink out teeth into. It could be caused by an actual improvement, a seasonal up tick, or any number of other factors. Only time will tell if we are looking at the bottom or not.
Using data from the June Report, I compared the Portland Housing Market to the 20 City Composite Index. Both were added to Case Shiller’s tracking in 2000. I think it is interesting that the two have come back together but I don’t have any conclusion as to what that means. Both started with an index of 100 1/2000. Portland is now 174.87 (high of 186.51 July 2007) and the Index is 169.85 (high of 206.52 July 2006).
To put that 0.3% increase from March to April into perspective: It is the lowest March-to-April increase since 1995. It is the third-lowest March-to-April increase since 1987, the first year Portland was tracked in the Case-Shiller index.
This tells you that the 0.3% increase (if it is even statistically valid) is most likely a seasonal increase, and as far as seasonal increases go, it is one of the weakest “spring bounces” ever.
But the Oregonian is using that as proof that the bottom is behind us. Now we’ll resume 20% a year appreciation until the end of time.
http://www.PortlandRealEstateBlog.com does not equal Oregonian.
One month of positive does not make a recovery. It is important but it doesn’t tell us much. History says there is a spring bounce and the fact that there was a slight uptick is important not in so much that it was there but that freefall didn’t continue right past it.