Jul
29
2008
Case Shiller May 2008
By Charles TurnerThis will be brief as the electrician that was to give 30 minutes notice called from the doorstep of the property.
New Case Shiller numbers already alluded to in the comments of another post:
Portland’s current index is 175.53. It was 174.87 in April. The peak was 185.67 in August, 2007.
Whoo hoo! It’s on, baby! Only going to pick up more downward momentum from here on out.
Let’s post some more numbers so we can all see through any attempts at spin (not accusing anyone specifically):
April 2005 141.14
May 2005 144.36
April 2006 172.59
May 2006 175.20
April 2007 183.55
May 2007 185.21
July 2007 186.51 (Peak)
April 2008 174.87
May 2008 175.53
So:
- The May index has dropped 5.9% from its July 2007 peak (175.53 vs. 186.51)
- The May index dropped by 5.2% from last May (175.53 vs. 185.21). This is a bigger drop than in April (4.7%).
- The May index increased by 0.4% from its April value (175.53 vs. 174.87). This is bigger increase than in April (0.3%).
- Last May, the index had increased by 0.9% from its April value (185.21 vs. 183.55). In May 2006, the index increased by 1.5% from April, and in May 2005, it increased by 2.3% from April.
The increase in May compared to April appears to be seasonal, since it has. In fact, compared to previous years, this April-to-May increase is rather small, and it continues a trend of smaller and smaller “spring bounces” every year. This behavior is entirely consistent with the acclearating year-over-year price declines.
BTW, the raw data is available for free at
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_csmahp/0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0.html
Thanks, Leo.
Ummmmm…Charles, I noticed you didn’t mention I nailed the April/May increase in my prediction the other day…
Ummmm…Mr Thrifty, congratulations.
Thank you!
Wow!
2009 is going to be fugly.
Wow!
2009 is going to be fugly.
good work..
it is a nice post