Case Shiller June and NAR Report
By Charles TurnerCase Shiller for June is just out. The results for March through June are 174.39, 174.87, 175.3, and 175.03 respectively. The graph here tracks back to February 2006 and compares Portland to the Case Shiller 20 Composite.
Also on the cover of the O’s Business Section: “Home Sales Surprisingly Stronger” (Oooo, ‘NAR Propaganda’). NAR reports that sales rose 3.1%. This beat the expected 1.6% increase. This report runs through July.
Under the same headline the story is different, “Boost in Housing Activity Eludes Portland and Seattle.” Looks like we are the Case Shiller darlings no longer. “Portland and Seattle were among the top ten metro areas in the nation with the most pronounced drop in home sales.”
Case Shiller always comes out on the morning of the last Tuesday of the month. Think the NAR report was released the day before to distract or just a coincidence? And for “Buy Now” campaigns? NAR has just released their own. I haven’t seen it but I’ve warned against taking that phrase hook line and sinker.
***This graph added 4PM 8/26 (click image to enlarge). It shows that Portland is down 5.8% from this time last year. No tracked city remains in positive territory; Charlotte is down 1.0% at one end of the spectrum and Las Vegas down 28.6% at the other end in the same one year period.
You know Charles if you’d worked a little harder in June we could have gotten the 0.8% I predicted. Thanks for making me look bad!
If only Teddy had become a Realtor like he had been planning at the beginning of the year, we’d have been at 1.0% or even higher!!!
Here are some raw numbers again:
May 2005 144.36
Jun 2005 148.37
May 2006 175.20
Jun 2006 177.72
May 2007 185.21
Jun 2007 185.76
July 2007 186.51 (Peak)
May 2008 175.53
Jun 2008 175.03
So:
- The June index has dropped 6.2% from the July 2007 peak (175.03 vs. 186.51). This is a bigger drop than in May (-5.9%)
- The June index dropped by 5.8% from last June (175.03 vs. 185.76). This is a bigger drop than in May (-5.2%).
- The June index dropped by 0.3% from its May value (175.03 vs. 175.53). In May, the index had risen from April by 0.4%.
- In June 2007, the index increased by 0.3% from its May value (185.76 vs. 185.21). In June 2006, the index increased by 1.4% from May, and in June 2005, it increased by 2.8% from May.
Overall, the indicators are more consistent in June than they were in May. All measures of change are downward and accelerating. In particular, the May-to-June price drop is bucking typical seasonal trends: Over the past 21 years, prices have fallen from May to June only one other year, 1997.
In June, Portland dropped to fifth place in terms of smallest depreciation. In February, it had the second-lowest depreciation among the 20 cities in the index.
Once again, the raw data is available for free at:
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_csmahp/0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0.html
We are standing on a beach and the water has started to recede rapidly. Do you:
1) Play with all the pretty flopping fish (buy).
or
2) Run for your life (rent, jingle mail).
We are standing on a beach and the water has started to recede rapidly. Do you:
1) Play with all the pretty flopping fish (buy).
or
2) Run for your life (rent, jingle mail).
Depends on how much dough your packing. The Boston and New York million dollar plus condo markets are on fire.
Really?
Unthinkable Happens: Manhattan Apartment Prices Fall