Oct
28
2008
Case Shiller August 2008
By Charles Turner
In August 2007, the Case Shiller Index for Portland was 186.0. The August 2008 Case Shiller Index released today is 171.93, down 7.5% (wish I could say the same for my 401k). Ugly but not as ugly as the national picture:
WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) – Home prices in major US cities posted record year-over-year declines in August, providing more evidence that prices may not have bottomed out yet.
The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index released today fell for the 15th consecutive month in August, and the index is now down a record 16.6% from a year earlier. That year-over-year decline is in line with expectations from economists, many of whom were anticipating a record annual decline.
Portland is about a year behind other western cities (LA, LV, Phoenix, etc.) in price drops. Those cities RE prices were dropping a year ago while PDX was still steady, so I would expect PDX to continue dropping after those cities have hit bottom. Based on PDX housing prices compared to income levels, I think RE prices will another drop 20-30% before prices get corrected.
I fail to see why you think this decline is “ugly.” It is a sorely needed correction, and hopefully a return to affordability. The sooner that happens, the sooner houses will start selling again. That would be a good thing for realtors, right? Realtors should be rooting for this market to drop as fast as possible. The slower it goes, the longer it will take to start making money again.
C’mon all you fence sitters, let’s wait a while longer! Here’s to (possibly) owning a house in 2010!
Affor da bility here we come!