Portland Real Estate Blog

Case Shiller for September 2008 continued its downward trend.  The Portland index is down to 169.67 compared to August’s 171.93 and a high of 186.51 in July 2007.  September’s mark is at about the same level we had in March 2006 (169.87).  The index is down 9.0% from its high. The S&P500 index is down 25.2% from March 2006 – October 2008 (calculated here).

According to SFGATE:
“There wasn’t a good number in there, but these numbers don’t really
reflect what’s happening now,” said Patrick Newport, U.S. economist
with Englewood, Colo., consulting firm IHS Global Insight, noting that
the bad economic news began midway through September and has worsened
since. “We should expect really awful housing (data) for the rest of
the year.”

It continues:
Since May, Case-Shiller’s national monthly declines have rested
around or below 1 percent, leading some observers to speculate that the
markets were approaching a bottom several months ago. In Tuesday’s
report, the declines were 1.9 percent for the 10-city index and 1.8
percent for the 20-city index. The change isn’t large and could in part
reflect seasonal home-buying patterns, which typically slow down at the
end of summer, but isn’t good news in any case.

“The key point is we do not yet see a deceleration,” said Susan
Wachter, professor of real estate at the University of Pennsylvania’s
Wharton School of Business. “This is another historic decline and the
drivers are still pointing down.”

The October index is sure to fall further, she said. Beyond that,
the health of the housing sector will depend on how markets react to
government efforts like the $800 billion plan to loosen lending
announced Tuesday, as well as stimulus measures to come, she said.

Standard & Poor’s expects it will take at least until the middle
of next year before the housing market bottoms outs and until 2010
before prices begin to climb, Newport said.

It's old news now. The IRS is offering a $7500 tax credit to first time home buyers. Keep reading. If you don't own and have not owned a home in the last three years, you can take a $7500 credit (not a deduction) off your tax bill. That means, for a transaction that closes by December 31st 2008, you can take the credit for on your 2008 taxes. Owe the Feds $10,000? Pay them only $2500. Don't owe them anything? They'll write you a check for $7500. Also note that this is not tax or legal advice so consult the appropriate professionals (accountant and/or attorney).

Now the "fine print" (most of it gathered from federalhousingtaxcredit.com sponsored by the National Association of Home Builders). They have more information on their site than is provided here. Not everyone qualifies.

• You can earn $75,000 or $150,000 on a joint return, it is prorated up to $95,000/$170,000 and you are SOL after that.

• Must close between April 9, 2008 and July 1, 2009.

• YOU MUST REPAY THE CREDIT! 1/15 every year starting two years after credit is taken.

• If the house is sold before the credit is paid back it is taken out of the sale (with some exceptions).

• The credit is actually 10% of the cost of the home. If you bought a $50,000 (must be principle) residence, your credit could only be $5,000.

I’m using Prudential Northwest Properties Transaction Platform which gets it data feed from RMLS to search for properties listed in Portland excluding any suburbs.  Between October 1st and October 31st, 2008, 637 properties listed in RMLS sold (864 sold in the same time frame in 2007). In 2008, they ranged from an in-park double wide to a $3.3M Dunthorpe home.  As of now, there are 5992 properties showing as active.

• 123 of the listings were on the market nine days or less. My assumption is that the system is reporting since the property was last assigned a new MLS number.

• Five listings were on the market over 500 days. They were all new construction condos.

• Average days on market was 73.

• The median listing price was $297,500.

• The average listing price was $354,528.

• The median selling price was $289,850; 97.71% of the list price.

• The average selling price was $343,588; 97.0% of the list price.

• The highest sold price to listing price ratio was 114% (home shows as 0 days on market).

• The lowest sold price to listing price 66.5% (was the lowest priced listing which sold for $8500).

• The 100th property when ranked from the lowest to highest ratio sold for 93.4% of asking.

• The 573th  property (100 from the highest ratio home) when ranked from the lowest to highest ratio sold for 100% of asking.

RMLS Market Action for October was just released. Nothing really surprising in the broad numbers. Inventory is up to almost 12 months. Accepted, closed and pending sales are down from this time a year ago. Average and Median prices are also down for the Portland Metro Area. The following breakdown “is based on a comparison of the rolling average sale price for the last 12 months (11/1/07-10/31/08) with 12 months before (11/1/06-10/31/07)”

Three of the four areas that make up Portland report positive numbers. Only one suburb area, Lake Oswego/West Linn, can make the same claim.

I’m pleased to announce the launch of of our latest website, www.PDXRelocations.com. It is a targeted Portland Relocation website for those moving to or new to the Portland area but the content is relevant to even the most knowledgeable Portlander. We’ve licensed copy from First Book’s Newcomer’s Handbook® for Moving to and Living in Portland. We’ve got all of the neighborhood chapters online, accessed through an interactive Google Map.

Did you know: Even [house] numbers are on the south and east sides of the street, odd numbers on the north and west sides? That’s a part of the address locator copy from the Handbook.

Weather reports this time of year are pretty straight forward in Portland; rain with the chance of more rain and the possibility of more rain, maybe even snow after that. We set our clocks back (we might have remembered to change the smoke detector batteries at the same time and settle in for dark cold nights. Dark, wet, rain and cold make selling a house even tougher if you don’t do something to address it. So what do we have to consider when selling a home in winter?

Fall leaves are beautiful when still attached to the tree but are less so on the ground. They also become slip hazards on some surfaces. Curb appeal still counts.

If your potential buyers and their agents have to find the front door by Braille before fumbling with the key-box and door, they’re going to be put off.  Consider leaving the front porch light on or putting something outside on a timer that will help light the entrance to the house.

It is entirely possible for the inside of a house to be in the forties when it is in the fifties outside. Cold inside for some reason feels colder than cold outside. If you can see your breath inside, the odds of a buyer lingering to fall in love with the property is diminished. Especially with vacant houses, there needs to be some consideration to bursting pipes. Thank God it is warmer here than other places. Even with the heat (with and adjustable thermostat, if possible) set to 60 the comfort level is noticeable.

If we get to the freezing rain point of the year, that has to be addressed. The homeowner is responsible to the curb, including the pubic sidewalks, outside their property.

Real estate doesn’t stop in the winter.  Typically there are fewer listings and fewer buyer all other things being equal but those sellers and buyers are usually more serious as a whole in winter months.    In our current market, that statement may need adjusting as some summer sellers that expected their properties to sell before now are still on the market.

The Wall Street Journal has a semi-interactive map showing state's homeowner's negative equity positions across the country. Nevada heads the list at 47.8%. New York is at the other end of the spectrum at 4.4%. Oregon is at 7.7% with another 2.2% within five percent of falling into negative territory. The title of the page: Haunted Houses.