Can RMLS Market Action Predict Case Shiller?
The Case Shiller Index is released on the last Tuesday of each month (tomorrow). The Index has a three month lag; tomorrow’s report will tell us about September. RMLS Market Action comes out midway through the following month; we already have data through October. Without a massive amount of statistics, does RMLS Market Data predict what the Case Shiller Index for the Portland real estate market look like? I don’t think so.
The graph ab0ve with inventory levels makes the average sales price and Case Shiller Index (for Portland) hard to discern so the graph below removes inventory but is the same otherwise.
November 23rd, 2009 at 3:06 pm
Interesting to see those numbers against each other. I’ve often wondered how they would stack up. I’m not surprised that there would be such a disconnect, though. Our methodology is far different from Case Shiller. One of the main differences is that our numbers don’t include the Clark County area, whereas Case Shiller does. Thanks for putting this together, Charles!
November 23rd, 2009 at 7:33 pm
It would great if RMLS posted the actual number of homes on the market with the ‘inventory’. If sales drop off big time in December due to the rush to buy to beat the $8K credit the ‘inventory’ might spike which might give the impression that lots of folks just put their homes on the market in December when actually sales dropped.
Does that sound confusing?!
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:39 pm
Leigh, that might be something we can explore.
November 24th, 2009 at 7:30 am
[...] I took some data from RMLS Market Action to see if it gave any indicator of what today’s Case Shiller repo… would look like and also reposted two articles written in advance of today’s report. [...]
November 25th, 2009 at 1:02 am
Hi Guys,
Interesting to see those numbers against each other. I’ve often wondered how they would stack up. If sales drop off big time in December due to the rush to buy to beat the $8K credit the ‘inventory’ might spike which might give the impression that lots of folks just put their homes on the market in December when actually sales dropped.
November 25th, 2009 at 10:35 pm
Interesting to see those numbers against each other. I took some data from RMLS Market Action to see if it gave any indicator of what today’s Case Shiller repo… would look like and also reposted two articles written in advance of today’s report.
November 29th, 2009 at 11:19 pm
Wow, is there a creative program out there that quotes previous comments to make it NOT look like spam…gobransomhomes…you would think they’d at least quote a more optimistic commenter?
December 7th, 2009 at 9:42 am
[...] couple of weeks ago I took a look at whether RMLS Market Action could help us predict what the trailing Case Shiller report might look li…? The answer was no, at least not as reported. It was pointed out that the methodologies are [...]