Total real estate listings in Portland: Active 5835/1158 pending = 19.8%

$0-$199,999: 1542 active/307 pending = 19.9%

$200,000 – $399,000: 2589 active/551 pending = 21.3%

$400,000 – $599,000: active: 887 active/pending 187 = 21.1%

$600,000 – $799,000: active 316/pending 55 = 17.4%

$800,000 – $999,000: active 152 active/pending 20 = 13.2%

$1,000,000 and up: 188 active/pending 16 = 8.5%

It doesn’t show anything revolutionary but is a good reminder that breaking down market segments is important.  We’ve been saying that the $600k-$800k market  had at least picked up for us and this seems to confirm that statistically.

I’ve also started to break down inventory by RMLS area for Portland.  Five areas make up Portland and we can see that they do not mirror the larger metro market other than they are all increasing.  City of Portland inventory, at 9.3, is a month shorter than the Metro but the smaller neighborhood areas lag or lead the city and metro rates.

Median sale prices are down from July 2009 but active sales prices are up.

Click to for larger image

Did you get your Market Tracker report on Sunday?  Market Tracker is emailed automatically from our system for any of the RMLS area zip codes on the first Sunday night of the month.  We can set you up for up to ten zip codes.  Use the “additional comments” portion of the form to let us know which ones you would like included in the report.

The other report that we offer is the Property Investment Profile.  The report is more property specific than the Market Tracker report.  It uses a small radius around a specific property and tracks active and sold listings in the neighborhood and has listing details.  In larger condo complexes we can report on a specific building.  Request this report using the same form.  Click here for a  Property Investment Profile for the Henry Condominiums.

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The graph shows the last four years compared to the 20 City Composite Index.  The Composite was 40 points ahead of  Portland at one time but almost matches Portland now, actually lagging by a point-and-a-half.

Case Shiller reports “Portland” as the seven county MSA.  The report, released on the last Tuesday of every month lags 60 days.  It’s not possible to drill into the data like we can RMLS data to see how the City of Portland is fairing.

The rest of the metro data is a mix of up and down:

When comparing June 2010 with June 2009, closed sales increased 13.3%. Pending sales and new listings fell 25.2% and 4.9%, respectively.

Comparing June 2010 with the previous month, May 2010, closed sales dropped 1.9% (2,012 v. 2,050) and pending sales grew 8.4% (1,618 v. 1,493). New listings also rose 16.3% (4,049 v. 3,482).

The 8.4% increase in pending sales contrasts with a 50.1% drop between May and April (there were 1618 pending sales in June, 1493 pending sales in May and 2991 in April).  April 30th was  the deadline to enter into a contract for Home Buyer Tax Credit eligibility.  For comparison purposes, there were 2852 pending sales in July 2007, close to the peak of the Portland real estate market.

Case Shiller uses the seven county Portland MSA for its reporting on closed sales with a two month lag, this has changed from a previous three month lag:

The monthly S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices use the “repeat sales method” of index calculation – an approach that is widely recognized as the premier methodology for indexing housing prices – which uses data on properties that have sold at least twice, in order to capture the true appreciated value of each specific sales unit.

New construction and condos are not considered in the report.  April was a strong month for the Portland real estate market by most metrics.  The contracts for eligibility for the Home Buyer Tax Credits had to be signed by April 30th and must close by tomorrow, June 30th, without a vote by Congress to extend it.  There is no current indication in the news the closing date will be extended.  Starting Thursday, the real estate market must stand on its own two feet without being propped up by the tax incentives.  Low interest rates, the “seasonal selling season,” and lower prices may give some confidence to people that now may be their time to enter the market.  Educate, understand and decide.

Click here for previous posts on the Case Shiller Index.

Inventory dropped between April in May Portland Metro and four of the five Portland RMLS areas.  Metro’s inventory is the lowest it’s been since August 2007.  Pending sales dropped by 50% in the same period which may be a precursor to an inventory bump next month.  Tax Credit eligible transactions need to close by the end of June so that may counter that a little.

The average sales price for the metro area is $275,500 and the median price is $239,000.  That’s down from May 2009 where the average sales price was $291,00 and the median $250,000.

At the end of the day, consistency of the data is what matters; there’s nothing wrong with either RMLS Market Action, Case Shiller or other reports as long as methodology remains the same.

The Case Shiller Index uses the Portland MSA, the 23rd largest in the country, for its reporting on the Portland real estate market. It encompasses seven counties. The is a map of the Portland MSA on last week’s post. A drive from the southwest corner of the MSA to the northeast corner would be over 140 miles.

RMLS, according to Market Action: “Statistics reflect reported activity for the greater Portland, Oregon metropolitan area, to include Multnomah, Washington, Clackamas, Yamhill, & Columbia counties; Lane, Douglas, Coos & Curry Counties in Oregon; portions of other Oregon Counties; and Clark, Cowlitz & Pacific Counties in Washington.”

So how local do we need to be? How broad of a brush stroke answers your questions? Case Shiller Index numbers are national news. RMLS Market Action stats are big news here each month An appraisal looks at houses within a half mile of a property.  Market data is readily available for zip codes as well.

If we take RMLS Market Action from April, the report shows Portland has a 7.3 months inventory, the ratio of active listings to closed sale. But if we take a closer look at the five RMLS areas that make up Portland another picture is painted:

This means if the theory that the shift from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market at six months is accurate, four of the five Portland areas were in a seller’s market in April and the fifth, West Portland, is more of a buyer’s market than the overall picture shows . When May’s numbers are published, I’ll run the same calculations.

The most important consideration is that you understand what the data is reporting for any given report.

Our model projects the biggest price declines in Las Vegas, Seattle and Portland, due to high homeowner vacancy rates and/or rising mortgage delinquencies. Conversely, we expect modest house price gains in Cleveland, Minneapolis, San Diego and San Francisco.

The report does not appear to be online except “for those permissioned” at https://360.gs.com.  I am not one them; the report was emailed to me.  Goldman Sachs used Case Shiller data for their findings which lags three months.

Given the excess supply in the housing market and rising delinquencies, our model suggests that the composite 20-city Case-Shiller index will fall by about 3% over the next year and another 1% over the following year. This projection is weaker than the current consensus forecast of a 0.4% drop in the national Case-Shiller index in 2010 followed by a 1.6% increase in 2011.

Goldman states that their findings are more pessimistic than the consensus.  But there’s a second part of Case Shiller that is equally important: Case Shiller uses the seven county Portland MSA in their reporting [previous post on Case Shiller Methodology].  That means that a house in Klickitat (Skamnia County), a house in Sheridan (Yamhill County) and one on Council Crest are all in Portland according to the report.  It’s 137 miles from Sheridan to Klickitat using Google Maps.  You have to decide what is local enough for you when looking at real estate.  It doesn’t mean that Case Shiller data is bad data.  It means that we have to understand what we are looking at; both with good reports and bad reports.

The Portland MSA- crinorthwes.org