Every month those with an interest in the Portland real estate market eagerly wait for reports to come out. RMLS Market Action is published mid-month and Case Shiller is released on the last Tuesday of the month with a three month lag. Our Market Tracker report is emailed out on the first Sunday of every month and the Property Investment Profile is set on a 30 day cycle. The graphs are also available on our www.PDXBuyer’s.com website which always displaying the latest graphs available. The Market Tracker report is zip code based and we can sign you up for up to ten (97210 sample). The PIP report is property address specific (PIP sample, this one is for the Pinnacle in the Pearl District). The graphs below are from the 97212 (Alameda, Beaumont, Wilshire, Eliot and Hollywood areas) Market Tracker report for May 2010. The graphs for all Portland zip codes are online and the reports are by subscription. We won’t share or sell your info- privacy policy.
The Case Shiller Index for Portland remained flat in March 2010. The Index for Portland is 143.61, down .08 from February. Seasonally adjusted, the Index was up .16. The Index is at the same level as April/May 2005.
Since March of 2009, the Portland Index has dropped from 147.68 to 143.61. The National 20 Composite climbed from 140.60 to 143.35 during the same period . The Composite 20 Index peaked at 206 in July 2006. The Portland Index peaked at 186 in July 2007. According to this month’s Case Shiller report:
New York, May 25, 2010 – Data through March 2010, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that the U.S. National Home Price Index fell 3.2% in the first quarter of 2010, but remains above its year-earlier level. In March, 13 of the 20 MSAs covered by S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and both monthly composites were down although the two composites and 10 MSAs showed year-over-year gains. Housing prices rebounded from crisis lows, but recently have seen renewed weakness as tax incentives are ending and foreclosures are climbing.
My post yesterday regarding lockbox activity underscores that there was a drop off in showings after the tax incentives expired. Case Shiller reporting lags three months so “renewed weakness as tax incentives are ending” doesn’t make a lot of sense vis-a-vis their own reporting as they are reporting 90 days back and eligibility for the incentives expired 25 days ago. Foreclosures are a valid concern.
Each week RMLS reports on the weekly activity of the Supra lockboxes that we use. The electronic, PIN number protected box tracks when Realtors open a box in real time. The reports are for the all of the Oregon lockboxes opened RMLS subscribers. They also publish one for Washington simultaneously on the RMLS blog website.
Showings dropped off immediately after the April 3oth expiration of the Home Buyer Tax Credits. There were 5044 showings the weekend after the incentive compared to 7197 the weekend preceding. Mother’s Day tweaked the following week (May 9th) as showings for that day were off nearly 1500 compared to the Sunday before and after. Adding 15oo showings to the week of 5/3/ to 5/9 would have resulted in a decrease in overall activity, not a 6.4% increase in the last cycle. We usually only have to open a lockbox once per visit.
The Portland real estate market saw a huge jump in pending sales in April but at this point we can’t tell how many of those will result in closed sales. Did some buyers leap into contracts that they might have waited on otherwise? Probably. If their transaction failed at the end of a typical 10 business day inspection period, they may have re-entered the market last Monday so next week’s report might reflect that. I personally haven’t heard of a buyer exiting the market because they did not get into contract by April 30th. The Credit eligible pending transactions have to close by June 30th. 
How much Portland real estate do you get for your money? Does what you want exist? I created the two graphs from RMLS Home Sales Report.
- The highest concentration of homes sold were three bedrooms between $200,000 – $249,999.
- That price range also has the largest number of active listings.
- For four bedrooms homes, the largest segment was $300,000 – $399,999.
- Total residential home and condo sales in April was $551,753,722.
- 1.42% of the homes on the market cost under $100,000.
| 551,753,722 |
Portland real estate inventory dropped 40% between February and March! After a two month spike with over 12 months, inventory levels have returned, at least for now, to the levels that we saw during the last half of 2009. There were positive changes in all of the market metrics: average sales price, median sales price, pending sales, closed sales, inventory levels, and days on market.
Average and median prices also increased from last month but the average price is down 5.8% from this time last year. The average sales price is $238,900.
Pending sales in Lake Oswego/West Linn are up 91% from March 2009. Pending sales are up across all reported areas.
North Portland still has the shortest days on market: 91. The average days on market for the Metro area is 142.
The Case Shiller Index for January 2010 in Portland is 147.29. That’s a drop from December of 1.8% and a 12 month decline of 4.9%. The current index is about the same as May/June 2005. That’s in contrast to the 10 City Composite and 20 City Composite indices which have both returned to “autumn 2003 levels.” Portland reported and index of 120.49 in September 2003.
The graph to the right is a compressed version of the lower graph. The question is whether Portland’s real estate market is late to the party and will continue its decline or if now that the Composites have returned to roughly Portland levels the trio will continue to track closer in the future?
Ryan Frank reported on The Front Porch this morning in more detail about the report.
Yesterday I wrote about a property tax reduction scam that is being investigated by the state’s attorney general. For $189.00 the letter says they will file for a reduction on your behalf. So what is involved in filing for a reduction (note that this is not tax or legal advice). Google sends us to this Board of Property Tax Appeal 2009-2010 Real Property Petition. You may be able to find the most current tax year forms here in the future.
The major indicator that the offer might be a scam is found on the first and fourth page of the form: appeals had to be filed by December 31, 2009 for the tax year?
The second potential issue is the list of people that can file and attend the hearing (attending the hearing is optional). A third party firm out of California is not on the list unless they can fit into this description: “This includes Oregon licensed CPAs or PAs, or PAs from another state who have proof of substantial equivalency authorization from Oregon.” Attorneys, CPA, real estate brokers and tax professionals are on the list of non-family members that may represent the owner.
The form is two pages plus some supporting documentation.
The February RMLS Market Action report on the Portland real estate market came out this morning. 
When I ran the Multnomah Country report yesterday I said that I thought that inventory would remain fairly static as there is an increase in listings and an increase in activity. Note the importance of methodology: my report shows and increase in active listings while RMLS reports a decrease in new listings. My report was also more localized (Multnomah County only).
Today’s Market Action report:
“Comparing February 2010 with February 2009, closed sales increased 18.4%. Pending sales also jumped 45%, and new listings rose 12.4%.
When comparing February 2010 with the month prior, January 2009, closed sales grew a slight 2.9% (1,015 v. 986) and pending sales were up 20.5% (1,850 v. 1,535). New listings, on the other hand, dropped just 1% (3,902 v. 3,937).”
Both Case Shiller and RMLS put today’s home values at roughly June/July 2005 prices from their latest reports. Case Shiller’s latest report was released at the end of February for December.
We’ll know some time in April what Congress is or isn’t going to do with the Home Buyer Tax Credit. We have to operate under the assumption that it will expire on April 30th (must be under contract (accepted offer)) and closed by June 30th. It was extended November 7th- just 23 days before the prior expiration. April 30th is a Friday which bodes better than what would have been a fairly useless last week of November had it expired just days after Thanksgiving. There is very little to be found on the Internet even just talking about the subject of an extension. I still feel that the Credit has been a good thing for real estate but not the make or break for it.
In PSU’s Quarterly & Urban Development Journal 2010 First Quarter report, “Housing Market Analysis,” Scott Aster publishes a graph that further emphasizes that real estate local. Three of the RMLS areas studied appreciated during the first quarter of the year. The rest were all in a state of decline. North Portland is the only area that was positive over last year overall.
It’s also important to note that different studies use different methodologies. Keeping in mind that Case Shiller reports lag three months, that report has shown the market as being fairly flat recently.
The Portland State University Center for Real Estate recently published their Quarterly & Urban Development Journal 2010 First Quarter report (76 page pdf).
I’ve just started scanning through then entire report but can see the Scott Aster’s “Housing Market Analysis” and Cliff Hockley’s“Condominium Financing: FHA Rule Change Controversy” deserve a closer look and discussion.
