Quick cheating cut and paste job while vacationing in England:
Home prices in 20 major U.S. cities were down 6.1% on average in the past year as of October, according to the Case-Shiller price index released Wednesday by Standard & Poor’s.
Since October 2006, prices in 10 cities fell 6.7% — a record drop. The prior largest decline was 6.3% in April 1991.
“No matter how you look at these data, it is obvious that the current state of the single-family housing market remains grim,” said Robert Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC and co-developer of the index.
Eleven of the 20 metro areas posted a record low annual growth rate, and six of the metro areas posted double digit declines. Also, all 20 metro areas declined from the prior month.
San Diego posted the largest decline of 2.6%.
Miami sustained the largest drop over the past year, with a decline of 12.4%. Next came Tampa, with a drop of 11.8%; Detroit, with a drop of 11.2%; and San Diego, with a drop of 11.1%.
Home prices are going to decline “considerably further” in coming quarters, likely reaching a double-digit pace on a year-over-year basis, according to Joshua Shapiro, chief economist for MFR Inc.
“Given conditions relating to mortgage financing, and the number of unsold homes that is piling up, all regions are likely to continue on a negative trend in the months ahead, and those with the greatest oversupply (at the bottom of the pack at the moment) will continue to fall by the most,” wrote Shapiro in a research note.
Three areas — Charlotte, N.C., Seattle, and Portland, Ore., — were the only ones still experiencing positive annual growth rates in home prices, according to the report. Charlotte gained 4.3%, Seattle gained 3.3% and Portland gained 1.9%.
Both the 10-city and 20-city composites declined 1.4% from September — their single largest monthly decline on record.
October’s results mark the 10th consecutive month of negative annual returns, and the 23rd consecutive month of decelerating returns, according to the report.
Marketwatch 11:27 AM ET 12/26/07
This sounds bleak! With this in mind, what do you think is in the future of the Portland, Oregon market?
“Among the three [Charlotte, N.C., Seattle, and Portland, Ore.], only Charlotte is likely to be saved from declining house prices within the coming few months, Newport said, because the area has not seen periods of rapid appreciation like the other markets.”
From JP’s link: “Among the three [Charlotte, N.C., Seattle, and Portland, Ore.], only Charlotte is likely to be saved from declining house prices within the coming few months, Newport said, because the area has not seen periods of rapid appreciation like the other markets.”
Kevin Johnson, co-founder of Homes of the South Inc. in Charlotte, agreed.
“We never jumped very high like other areas,” Johnson said. “We don’t have a hard fall as other places.”
Newport is an economist with Global Insight. Johnson sounds like he is a Realtor. Sounds like the same thing that has been said about our market.
Who has suggested that there has not been a period of rapid appreciation in Portland, as compared to North Carolina?
Right now on housingtracker.net, the Detroit area median price is listed as $135,000. Portland’s is $327,479. Seattle is sitting at $385,000. A 10% reduction in Detroit is $13,500 on the median home, but that same 10% is $32,748 in Portland, and $38,500 in Seattle. Raleigh, North Carolina is in the middle at $249,900.
What’s worse for the average homeowner: A 10% reduction in Detroit or a 5% reduction in Portland?
Sounds like the same thing that has been said about our market.
Charles – You have got to be kidding! Name one person who says there has not been rapid appreciation in housing prices in Portland? You keep praying and posting that PDX will somehow be saved from this train wreck, but everything we see points to the fact that it too will crash, even if it is the caboose.
It is ridiculous how some people continue to bash PDX realestate even with report after report showing PDX realestate market strong and growing.
I am with folks who are “praying for PDX marketing to be saved from train wreck” 🙂 Who can associate with the haters? I can only wish these folks can afford a PDX house soon and start living more positive and fulfilling lives 🙂
I was beginning to wonder what happened to you, as you had not responded to the other thread.
In any event, could you point me in the direction of a recent report that shows that PDX is “strong and growing.” I certainly have not seen such.
The latest Case-Shiller report showed great destruction of wealth, but PDX happened to suffer less than some other areas, but PDX is far from healthy.
Maybe you are looking at some other report? (From the NAR or some sales agent, maybe?)
Oh Austinrelo – How good to know that the PDX real estate market is “healthy” and “growing.” Sounds like you have a lot to lose. It’s going to take more than prayers and positive thinking to save recent buyers from the pain that’s coming up. We live in a material world, Austinrelo, with material consequences for bad choices. You can’t just wish away inflation; you can’t just wish away a real estate bubble; you can’t just wish away 9 trillion dollars in national debt. It’s unfortunate that it’s people like you, who refuse to acknowledge the materiality of their existence and who buy things they cannot afford, who go around telling others how to lead fulfilling lives. I suggest you secure a very large stash of brandy and Tylenol (if you can afford them) for all the pain you’re going to be in shortly.
Last night I saw a program on “Condo Vultures.” It seems the company is based wholly on telling the seller that their place is overpriced. We can probably agree that PDX lags behind in the RE market, but considering the BV and other recent auctions, the ‘vultures’ may roost here soon enough.
The Miami condo prices were described on the program as “free fall.” Interestingly enough, new construction was ongoing–the strategy was to hold the buyers to their purchase agreement. Once the unit is constructed, they generally forfeit the 20% that was placed down, so the buildings are effectively being built at a 20% discount.
Maybe someone can discuss the condo supply and demand in Portland’s downtown area?
Check out those vultures:
Hope you had a good Christmas. Still looking forward to your responses in the RMLS thread….
It would make me sad to find out that you are a troll.
At this point I think we can summarize all that austinrelo adds:
PDX is wonderful, PDX is great.
If someone suggests it’s not, God gets quite irate.
Who can associate with the haters?
What I find interesting is now anyone who presents negative or contrary information is now a “hater”.
It’s not just this blog either…it’s everwhere…in our enterprises, our schools, our politics. No one can say anything negative without having “rocks” thrown at them (I use rock as a metaphor).
The status quo of enforced positive thinking and self-interested denial forces us into inaction, keeps us from doing the right thing, and making the tough decisions. I offer the following from Minyanville Staff…
“And meanwhile, as the financial crisis unfolds, regulators, politicians, and even banks themselves bury their heads in the sand. For months banks cried “no exposure!” only to write down tens of billions of dollars. The Fed vows action and readiness, meanwhile announcing solutions that fail and fade while behind the scenes the invisible hand doles out periodic doses of meager support to the markets for money, a lifeline to an addicted patient.”
But by all means, keep on the steady diet of positive-thinking propaganda…I hope it works out for ya. Me, I would rather accept and face conditions as they are.
“WASHINGTON (AP) — The housing market plunged deeper into despair last month, with sales of new homes plummeting to their lowest level in more than 12 years.”
Full report here:
But by all means, keep on the steady diet of positive-thinking propaganda…I hope it works out for ya.
Sounds like too many people were reading The Secret when they should have been reading The Crash of ’29.
Yeah, that “Who can associate with the haters?” comment made me wonder if austinrelo is actually some kind of parody. It’s pretty hard to take that seriously.
Why do we hate America so much that we point out these problems?
I can only wish these folks can afford a PDX house soon and start living more positive and fulfilling lives 🙂 <-- Ah, there it is. The smiley. I think austinrelo is just kidding around.
Stop flaming austinrelo! This is turning into a grade school spit fight. I come here for information, not name calling. Charles can you not stop these personal attacks against posters? I felt austinrelo spoke for me and many others about the need for postive information on this website. I know there is bad news about real estate too, but the personal attacks against posters and Charles are uncalled for. You put your foot down about one poster, maybe you could set a few rules on personal attacks.