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Portland 2008 Real Estate Poll Re-Re-Do

Clearly somebody has way too much time on their hands. So, reset the poll since it is an important question for this forum. This time, it is limited to one vote checked by cookie and IP address. Hopefully it will be allowed to run unmolested.

8 Comments on “Portland 2008 Real Estate Poll Re-Re-Do

  1. I am yet to answer the poll, as I am yet able to comprehend what the answers mean. If, for example, I think that the rate of appreciation has been ZERO, then it seems that all the answers are the same, as “increasing zero by more than 10%” is exactly equal to “decreasing zero by more than 10%.”

    Even if we could agree to a base, then I am not sure how to answer. Let’s assume that on a historic basis Portland real estate has appreciated an average of 10% (by some agreed on metric), then what does a reduction of 5% amount to? Does that mean appreciation will now be 9.5%, or does it mean that appreciation will be 5%?

    Then I wonder if we are all thinking in terms of the same base. If you think that on a historic basis Portland real estate has appreciated by more than 20%, then you might be more apt to suggest that there will be a reduction of more than 10%, but if another person has an opinion that the appreciation has been zero based on a different sample, then they would be more apt to suggest that the there will be an increase in appreciation.

    It would be clear if the poll were worded somewhat different, such as:

    During calendar year 2008 what do you think will happen in the Portland housing market:

    * An appreciation of more than 10%
    * An appreciation of more than 5% but less than 10%
    * An appreciation of less than 5%
    * A depreciation of less than 5%
    * A depreciation of more than 5% but less than 10%
    * A depreciation of more than 10%

    Appreciation is defined as the ratio of Market Value at the end of the year less market value today to market value today.

    (MVEOY-MVT)/MVT

    If the ratio is negative, then it is depreciation and the absolute value will be taken.

  2. Oh, I have some edge issues in my divisions, as I have left out the fives and tens. I should have reviewed that before I posted it. I’ll try to be more careful in the future.

  3. Vis-a-vis RMLS’ reports of apprciation. Not sure how they come up with the final number but whem they report 12 month appricaiton this time next year, what will it be?

  4. That’s what the poll should say!

    What do you think the RMLS will report as the calendar year 2008 appreciation:

    * An appreciation of 10% or more
    * An appreciation of at least 5% but less than 10%
    * An appreciation of less than 5%
    * A depreciation of less than 5%
    * A depreciation of at least 5% but less than 10%
    * A depreciation of 10% or more

  5. We’d hope RMLS and S&P/Case Schiller would be close to each other. They should be mining the same data.

    Interesting, Outsider, that you have Zillow as a favorite link. They just updated their formulas and removed the “beta” tag from their site. I need to play with it more since I think our house is mispriced by 30%-40% but it is unique. I need to try it with other properties before posting about it but that will happen this week.

  6. Charles, what data did you use to come up w/ your own Zillow estimate $1,207,091? I think the recent sale at 1116 NW 24th might be throwing off the numbers for the neighborhood?!?! Boy, did they get a screaming deal at $310K!

  7. I fixed Zillow’s inaccuracies a year ago to come up with that value. Near strip-to-the-studs remodel of a 1902 historic registry home. Zillow can’t cope.

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