This blog proves that there is little agreement about where the Portland real estate market is heading. The range of thoughts runs from double digit depreciation to low single digit appreciation. The latest Case Shiller report places Portland as on of the top three markets. The Oregonian reported yesterday that through September Oregon had the third lowest rate of defaults on mortgages. Our team had a very successful January but Realtors are leaving the business in droves.
For each good thing in our market there is a negative. Subprime lending cannot be ignored. Government bailout plans could help the masses or a select few depending on what the politicians finally agree to. Interest rates are dropping but can those that need to get out of the resetting ARMs qualify for them? The rates on Jumbo Loans (over $417,000) have remained largely unchanged; since they are nonconforming, the secondary mortgage market isn’t as keen to buy them.
My thought (be nice in your comments) is that the market will advance somewhere in the low single digits (average price, not median). Even if the market is softer, there may, depending on your situation, be tax advantages to balance some of that out. Maybe not, I’m not an accountant and you need to talk to one.