I’m just running out to show property but before I go, in it’s entirety, is a article on the latest Case/Shiller report. The same three cities kept their heads above zero but we have to keep the latest RMLS figures as a gut check to what is on the surface good news for Portland.
— John Flowers, Dow Jones Newswires
NEW YORK (Dow Jones) — A closely watched gauge of U.S. home prices showed broad-based declines in the prices of existing single family homes, marking 2007 as a full year of declining home prices.
Home prices in 10 major metropolitan areas in the fourth quarter were down 8.9% from a year earlier, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price indexes, released Tuesday by credit-rating firm Standard & Poor’s. That was largest decline in the measure’s 20-year history.
“Wherever you look things look bleak, with 17 of the 20 metro areas reporting annual declines and the remaining three reporting flat or moderate growth rates,” said Robert J. Shiller, professor at Yale University and chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC. Shiller added 14 of the metro areas also are reporting record declines, with eight being in double digits.
Miami remains the hardest hit of the major cities, posting an 18% annual decline. Las Vegas, Phoenix and San Diego all experienced price drops of 15%.
Charlotte; Portland, Ore.; and Seattle are the only three metro areas measured by the index still not seeing year-over-year price declines.
The 10-City composite also set a new record, falling 9.8% in 2007; the 20-city index fell 9.1%.
Well at least there are bargains to had in other parts of the country.
Does anyone want to speak to the fundementals that support continued appreciation in PDX?
The Shiller report does say that ALL 20 cities were negative in December. In fact, Portland’s been negative since July.
But then, I’m just a naysayer. We all know Portland is poised for 20% yearly appreciation as soon as the spring selling season hits. Who wants to live in San Diego anyway?
I am excited to hear of the resiliency of our market. I only own three properties currently, but plan to purchase at least a few more. I am very confident that values will continue to hold strong, as they currently are. Will we see 20% in the next year or two? No. But I guarantee that within the next 5 years prices will be at least 20% higher than they currently are. Portland boasts a robust economy that warrants higher home values in general.
robust economy that warrants higher home values in general
Excellent Wang…you may just have the information I seek.
What are the fundamentals of this “robust economy” of which you speak? Specifically, what industries do you see driving the “robust economy”?
Here is what Naysayer is talking about. Portland’s price index according to Case Shiller:
January 2007 179.79
February 2007 179.90
March 2007 181.72
April 2007 183.55
May 2007 185.21
June 2007 185.76
July 2007 186.51
August 2007 186.00
September 2007 185.67
October 2007 185.10
November 2007 183.65
December 2007 182.47
In June/July 1999, the index was 100.
If Naysayer’s 20% decline is correct, prices would drop back to 149.2 (from a July high of 186). That matches the index from June/July 2005.
I said 20% appreciation, not decline. I predict that soon we will be as expensive as Tokyo, Paris or London. Then we can all congratulate ourselves on our good fortune.
This is not a positive trend:
186.51 July 2007
186.00 August 2007
185.67 September 2007
185.10 October 2007
183.65 November 2007
182.47 December 2007
My bad, Naysayer. You’ve got me conditioned for depreciation predictions 🙂 Which BTW, I did a little Excel assisted math: if prices (the index) dropped 20% today, it would take until October 2011 to get back to the July 2007 high of 186 if we then experienced 6% appreciation after the drop.
Charles-
October 2011 is a bit too long, assuming 149 and 6% appreciation.
149*1.06^4=188, so it would be a little less than 4 years, which would be very early 2011.
Make that too short, it would be very early 2012…
I still don’t understand a liberal city that celebrates the increasing UNaffordability of housing. It doesn’t fit.
I guess peoples’ personal gain trumps their interest in a stable society.
Makes one wonder how we’d act if other necessities became inflated- food, water, fuel. Would those with lard it over those without? Would those with care about the hardships faced by those squeezed out?
Oh well, I guess we just get into our Prius with our OPB sticker next to our Live Simply sticker, stop off at New Seasons to shop “sustainably” and drive home to check the value of our dwellings on Zillow.
Oh, please someone detail our robust economy. I just ain’t seeing it.
bearlee-
When you look at your neighbors, just think of all the $600 checks…
$600 is one car payment for these folks. Sorry, it ain’t enough.
So what lead up to these over inflated housing prices in Portland? Cheap money (low interest rates), easy money (no proof of income), creative financing (interest only, option arm’s etc), and lots of Cali folks selling their over priced homes and buying ours. So what’s our market going to do when only one of the four is working for us?
What’s the average income in Portland? What’s the average price of a home? What’s are jingle mail rate gonna be in 9 months? Bankruptcies and foreclosures?
I will buy you all a beer if prices aren’t down in 12 months but then anyone can make stats work in their favor, huh?
Since our economy is soooo robust all these unemployed realtors, lenders, and construction workers should have little difficulty in finding work. Add those Freightliner, OHSU, and Intel employees to the mix, too. Oh, and a barista here and there, too. One of my coffee shops I frequent just let two people go (25% of their workforce) cuz it’s been so slow. How many other little shops are doing this?
bearlee-
“$600 is one car payment for these folks.”
What is your personal view of the multiplier?
JP, so those $600 checks form the basis of our “robust economy”?
I’d like to know more about the “robust economy” here in PDX – Wang, care to elaborate? I’m just not seeing it, but maybe I’m just missing out on the next bubble.
I still don’t understand a liberal city that celebrates the increasing UNaffordability of housing. It doesn’t fit.
I guess peoples’ personal gain trumps their interest in a stable society.
That is quite a paradox there Naysayer. It would seem that Portland’s plan is to eliminate poverty all together by forcing the poor to move out to Gresham. Sounds like Limousine liberalism to me.
TiP-
“JP, so those $600 checks form the basis of our ‘robust economy’?”
Hey, as long as the paper from our printing presses remains good on the world market…
Do you see anything better?
While I generally disagree with Cramer, I have to say I agree with his philosophy about gold: He claims it will be a greater part of personal investing in the future. I tend to agree. The debacle of the late 70s is now 30 years past… No, I am not suggesting to invest in gold.
If you think PDX is bad, take a look at Detroit…
$600 every few months will have an impact but if you think a one time check is going to help why not just wait and see what our refunds this month and next do to the economy?
Most folks are in debt and this will continue since few seem to know how to live w/in their means. This is demonstrated by the fact that people are paying way too much for houses.
ohh wait, I just did the math, with that $600 I now have 20% down for my 400K house. Thank god, cuz I sure as hell can’t afford PMI on top of my mortgage.
BTW, where is that $600/person coming from? And who is paying for this trillion $$$ war? And our country’s trend toward being a service oriented job industry? Anyone concerned about the future?
I feel like this country is a house of cards and someone is about to sneeze.
bearlee-
Search the Internet for economic multiplier. If you believe in Lord Keynes’ theory, with a high marginal propensity to consume, each $600 might add about $12,000 to the GDP.
Also, the tax refunds are anticipated, so they have already been priced into the market–the $600/$300 is new money.
Key word there I guess would be “might”. It’s hard for me to imagine folks spending all the money given the current housing and credit situation. This $600/person cannot replace the home ATMs which have been unplugged for so many folks.
What did I do w/ my $3K I got last week? Half to clear the little debt I had and half to savings. But then I am practical and I guess most folks aren’t.
So what impact do you think the credit crunch, lack of creative financing, and lack of Californians moving up north (w/ big$) will have on PDX’s housing market? Why are you avoiding these issues?
Oh, and now speculators are saying gas will easily be at $4/gallon this summer. Thank god I got that 10% raise and the cost of my health insurance dropped.
I think you live in a different world than most folks, JP.
BTW, where is that $600/person coming from? And who is paying for this trillion $$$ war?
China is paying for both… well, to put it more accurately, we’re borrowing from China to pay for both. Our kids and grandkids will be paying for this mess.
And our country’s trend toward being a service oriented job industry? Anyone concerned about the future?
It’s gonna be bleak. Especially for the next generation or two who will have to pay for our mess. But this is what happens when empires overreach.
Search the Internet for economic multiplier. If you believe in Lord Keynes’ theory, with a high marginal propensity to consume, each $600 might add about $12,000 to the GDP.
Funny how all those Republicans suddenly became Kenesians.
I’m not thinking there will be this much of a multiplier: especially if people use it to pay down debt or save it. I plan to save it since the government will ask for it back in a few years (with interest, no doubt).
Also, if the people that do spend it go to WalMart and buy Chinese bigscreens then how’s that help the economy again?
A better way to help the economy at this point is to end the Iraq war immediately.
The trillion dollar war, hhmmmmmmm…can you imagine how many teachers we could hire and get the student to teacher ratio down to something like 15:1 not including custodians and kitchen help and secretary! And fix a few bridges here and there (ie, Minneapolis disaster). Gosh, I could make a really long list that would boost this economy w/ those dollars. And if we could turn back the clock, my cousin Army Spc. David Lee Rice, 22, of Sioux City, who was killed April 26, 2005 in Iraq would be a working, tax paying member of society instead of a body in a casket. But need I put a more somber tone to this topic?
I hope I didn’t just kill this conversation?
bearlee-
“David Lee Rice, 22, of Sioux City, who was killed April 26, 2005 in Iraq would be a working, tax paying member of society instead of a body in a casket. But need I put a more somber tone to this topic?”
What is the present value of an average worker to society? I actually run these computations from time to time. Who knows, I might run a present value computation on an average 22 year old soldier…
“I think you live in a different world than most folks, JP.”
CAUTION: Participants subject to Irrational Post-Alien Abduction Syndrome.
The value of a surviving soldier (4,000 dead so far)? Huh, that would be quite the challenge when you consider all the undiagnosed and untreated PTSD and our overburdened VA health system. Chew on that the next time y’all bitch about taxes.
Freedom isn’t free (that phrase annoys me. Pay w/ taxes or pay w/ your first born!
Once again, I’d like some of what Wang’s smoking, cause according to the data I’m looking at, we’re far from “holding strong”.
I can see why he wants to believe we’re holding strong, as he owns three properties, but 6 months of price declines isn’t “holding strong” in my book.
bearlee hit it on the head “So what lead up to these over inflated housing prices in Portland? Cheap money (low interest rates), easy money (no proof of income), creative financing (interest only, option arm’s etc), and lots of Cali folks selling their over priced homes and buying ours. So what’s our market going to do when only one of the four is working for us?” if you look at the growth bubble http://portlandrealestateoutsider.blogspot.com/2008/02/portland-median-prices-continue-to-fall.html it coincides perfectly with the rise of crazy credit in 2005-2007.
We haven’t gone into negative YoY growth just yet, but we will. Anybody see today’s economic indicators? Inflation is up, consumer confidence is way down, yikes!
bearlee-
This is getting a bit too far off the topic, but it’s not that complicated to compute the present value of a soldier, dead or alive (separate valuations). If you want to challenge the crystal ball assumptions, that’s another topic.
It’s tough, however, to place a value on what it means to a mother to have lost her son to a war.
If you ask me, caring for a wound is far more complicated than computing the expected economic value a soldier.
Now back to our regularly scheduled program…
Case-Shiller HPI graph
Time shifted graph to suggest that SEA and PDX are late:
http://i28.tinypic.com/fa2a82.png
(LA & San Diego dates on top, SEA & PDX on the bottom)
>>Case-Shiller HPI graph
Time shifted graph to suggest that SEA and PDX are late<< Occam's razor.
Bert Sperling here.
Or as the NY Times tagged me last year, “The Guy Who Picks the Best Places to Live.”
The Portland housing market will continue to do well for the foreseeable future because it offers a hip urban lifestyle close to beautiful wilderness, at reasonably affordable prices.
Portland is a ultra-desirable destination right now that seems to offer something for
all demographics. The national buzz about Portland (and Oregon in general) is very, very strong.
I think much of the analysis about housing prices misses that fact that some places just offer a better quality of life, and people will pay a premium to be part of that lifestyle. Seattle and Portland are two of these “best places,” and Charlotte’s QOL is O.K. but their hot economy is what is currently buoying the market there.
That said, Portland’s popularity will lead to higher prices, and is already changing the character of the city as the economics change the demographic mix.
There are interesting, and challeging, times ahead.
That said, Portland’s popularity will lead to higher prices, and is already changing the character of the city as the economics change the demographic mix.
Yeah, that’s what we’re afraid of: Portland will become a victim of it’s own success. Hey Bert, great way to ruin a place!
“Bert Sperling here.
Or as the NY Times tagged me last year, “The Guy Who Picks the Best Places to Live.””
…just follow the yellow brick road.
Time shifted graph to suggest that SEA and PDX are late:
Yeah, by morons who can’t figure out the difference between 18% and 33% appreciation.
So Bert, how are your other “great places to live” fairing? We have such a robust economy that no one can explain so we’ll be just fine…besides, Portland homes all were purchased at 20% down w/ great credit and our foreclosure rate is the same as 10 years ago and we have NO jingle mail issues.
Charlotte has Portland beat in the appreciation category. Does that mean Charlotte is an even greater place to live? Oh, that’s right, it’s their economy. And the fact that North Dakota was the only state to experience overall appreciation? They must have some serious buzz.
Nothing like fitting the story to the data. Even if you have to force it.
TiP-
What did you post on V-day 2007? Here is a reminder:
“Charles, to answer your question, I think we in Portland are often late to a lot of parties 😉
By that I mean that often trends start elsewhere and then spread here later. Look at the tech bubble: we recovered here later than most other areas of the country. (I’m an engineer and I work in technology – in 2003 it seemed that close to half of my engineering friends didn’t have steady work. It wasn’t till mid-to late 2004 that things seemed to start to recover here)”
It’s a bit eerie to read the whole thread:
https://www.portlandrealestateblog.com/realestate/2007/02/portland_real_e_1.html
I especially like the March 6, 2007 comment about “‘market freeze-up’.”
That’s what was being discussed last year… Not much has changed, if you ask me.
The market is always right, thus, tight credit, the fact that the Portland economy is NOT diverse and robust(ask us who have lived her for awhile)and increasing supply of homes for sale locally leads us to the downward trend lines on the current CS/S&P graphs, and the trend istelling us the market is going lower. The RE market is not liquid like the stock market and is not manipulated easily. I am a “glass half full” guy, but as a guy with both feet planted in reality, the facts speak for themselves. The first sign this market is turning to flat is when inventory stops increasing for 3 months in a row.
Interesting… Bert, an “outsider” to our area, gives an external view of our Portland’s housing market and the “locals” jump on him. We don’t have to agree but we do have to play respectful. Kind of feels isolationist.
Antidotely, our clients aren’t selling to move to another location for quality of living reasons. They are selling to move within the Portland metro area (we did interview for a listing today where the potential sellers are moving to India; Case/Shiller doesn’t cover India).
If you don’t like Portland buy a one way ticket to anywhere (if you need to sell on your way out of town, let me know).
My rant needs to be tempered by the fact that a lot of indicators for the economy that are not good ($4/gal gas, etc). Our market predictions are only that, predictions. JP’s graph today was very interesting and thought provoking (thank you).
Even if you don’t agree, thank you for being respectful and contributing.
If you don’t like Portland buy a one way ticket to anywhere
Actually, it’s not that we don’t like Portland, it’s that we don’t like what it’s becoming: Money-obsessed like many parts of California. We need some of the old Tom McCall spirit again – instead of inviting everyone over with open arms 😉 I mean if the PDX region were to grow at a rapid rate like Phoenix or some parts of CA… well, then in many ways we’d become like Phoenix or some parts of CA. “But the Urban Growth Boundary…”, you protest… How long do you think the UGB would survive after a large number of Californians move up? Remember, they’d be voting.
TiP-
What did you post on V-day 2007? Here is a reminder:
JP: Yeah, I think that was my debut here.
That’s what was being discussed last year… Not much has changed, if you ask me.
Except that credit continued to tighten from then till now (and the process goes on). Another thing that’s changed since then was that in February of 2007 the “mortgage crisis” was not being discussed much in the mainstream – now it’s everywhere – and back then if people were aware of it they thought it was “contained” to subprime. Ah, those were the good old days, eh?
Hey Tip, where would Oregon be if for the past 20/30 years no one was allowed to move to here, much like Tom McCall wished for?
The Oregonian just had an article a week or two ago stating the over 50,000 Californias are moving here a year. Guess it shouldn’t take too long to get the votes in place to get rid of the UGBs. Seriously, the UGBs have led to some extremely ugly skinny homes being built throughout the Portland area. But like all things in life, there’s good and bad in the UGBs.
Oh, I took Bert’s post to be more of an advertisement for his website, or just self promotion. Don’t get me wrong, I think Portland, as well as Oregon in general, is a great place to live.
Notwithstanding the niceness of the greater Portland area, and the larger state of Oregon, I am not so sure that the housing market in great place to live can withstand the macro issues that face the housing market and greater economy. At one time Detroit was a good place to live too, but that was about 50 years ago, and then there was Nader, and then there was the first energy crisis, and then there was increasing imports… Now a city that had a greater population than all of Oregon is in bad shape.
Imagine if Intel came under great competitive pressure, as did the domestic auto industry. Actually let’s not think like that.
I have always said good things about the people of Portland, and hope to be able to continue to do so.
Note that Bert Sperling does know Portland personally. He’s a Beaver (Oregon State class of 1974 grad). The
New York Times article is interesting.
Antidotely, our clients aren’t selling to move to another location for quality of living reasons.
Antidotely? Say, where did you get that MBA?
Sorry, couldn’t let that one go. I’ve seen some howlers from you in the past but that one needed to be noted.
PS. Everyone isn’t as thrilled about the housing bubble as you are. We don’t hate Portland, we hate what housing greed and opportunists have done to it. But, it looks like it’s O-V-E-R anyway.
At one time Detroit was a good place to live too
Hey, did you know there are lots of houses available in Detroit for as little as $100?
Imagine if Intel came under great competitive pressure, as did the domestic auto industry.
Or imagine that Intel doesn’t come under competitive pressure… since AMD is kind of on the ropes again. Not good to not have a viable competitor for a long time and then all of the sudden get one. It’ll probably be several years until another viable competitor arises, but when it happens it will likely not be from a US based company.
At this point, however, Intel’s Oregon employment levels are pretty much static. Don’t look for much Intel growth here – most of the new hiring they do now is overseas; primarily in Asia.
Hey Tip, where would Oregon be if for the past 20/30 years no one was allowed to move to here, much like Tom McCall wished for?
Well, kevbo, some of us who were here in the 70s or earlier might prefer that version of Oregon to this one… What’s that old song about “paved paradise and put up a parking lot”? Now of course, even Tom McCall didn’t think he was going to stop growth altogether – he just wanted to tap the brakes and take some time to think about what we were doing. I suspect McCall wasn’t very popular with realtors back then especially when he landed on the beach in the helicopter and declared that it belonged to all the citizens of the state not to greedy developers. I’m sure glad he got the beach bill through because I wouldn’t want our coastline to look like CA or places back east where there are fences that go down to the waterline. Can you imagine a governor taking a stand against money interests like that today (and a Republican one at that)?
Willamette, Atkinson Graduate School of Management.
Just calling them like we are seeing them. If you don’t like that it doesn’t fit with your model, tough. It amazes me how black and white this is to so many.
I like this blog. Charles does a good job with the topics and many of the comments are very insightful and do keep to the topic. I do get confused when the topic of this entry is “Good News for Portland Real Estate?” and we drift off topic. In the near term(12-18 months), there is an opportunity to buy in this market. Remember the old saying, “if you don’t like the prices today, you really won’t like them in 5 years”.
In the near term(12-18 months), there is an opportunity to buy in this market.
Frank: not sure what you mean? Isn’t there always an opportunity to buy in any market? And what impact will credit availability have on buying opportunity?
Remember the old saying, “if you don’t like the prices today, you really won’t like them in 5 years”.
Yeah, well how would that have worked out in Japan in 1989? (or in many parts of CA for that matter) It’s not a given by any stretch that prices will be higher in 5 years… and there are indications that they’ll actually be lower.
In the near term(12-18 months), there is an opportunity to buy in this market.
Frank: not sure what you mean? Isn’t there always an opportunity to buy in any market? And what impact will credit availability have on buying opportunity?
Remember the old saying, “if you don’t like the prices today, you really won’t like them in 5 years”.
Yeah, well how would that have worked out in Japan in 1989? (or in many parts of CA for that matter) It’s not a given by any stretch that prices will be higher in 5 years… and there are indications that they’ll actually be lower.
TiP-
Can I get a zero down 30 year interest only mortgage for one of those $100 homes?
I can see the headline in Detroit Free Press: “President Signs Bill that enable homeownership.”
“Today President George W Bush signed in legislation that will enable many residence of Detroit to purchase up to six homes, and many more if you have several children. “We’re really excited” was the general feeling of many who were looking forward to finally being able to afford their own place. One resident was really looking forward to finally becoming a landlord. “I’m just wondering how many properties I can purchase with $600 down.”
Charles-
I want to get this out before the end of February, so there are not any claims of being a revisionist:
This year presents another metric issue, albeit not that major. As we know, this year is leap year, thus there is an extra day to get those sales/closings in February. That’s an extra 3.6% over the last three Februaries. Based on time alone, we would expect additional closings. At the same time there’s extra time for people to list their home.
Some ratio data will not be significantly affected. Also since the data pool is quite large, the median and average prices won’t be affected too much.
Even with the additional time, I expect either or both 1. A YOY gross sales volume decrease, or 2. A YOY median sales price decrease.
I continue to expect that the gap between average price and median price will decrease, and since I am predicting lower median sales prices, this implies that I also anticipate the average sales price to decrease faster than median price, but this may take more than a month.
MLS asking price data for Portland shows a 7% decrease YOY for Jan while asking price data continue to show ~1% appreciation?
In seattle asking prices are down 3% and sales prices are flat.
What gives?
Looking-
Take a look back at some of the entries in this blog. We have discussed this quite extensively.
In summary, the distribution of listed homes does not match the distribution of sold homes. It’s been my basic claim that the homes on the top end of the market are selling better than the bottom end (others have discussed that it could be that below median sales are increasing in value toward the median, so the average increases).
It could be the case that each home has decreased by 10% in the last year, but if buyers are spending more to buy a much better home, then average selling prices will continue to increase. Also total volume has been decreasing. Thus while average prices are increasing, average selling price (and associated appreciation) is becoming less significant. Real estate is not very liquid in a hot market, and now there is 12.8 months of inventory…
It amazes me that so many think a 100% price appreciation in 5 years that was based on fraud, speculation and greed is sustainable.
Do the cheerleaders for this market read the papers? Do you realize the economic debacle that this bubble has precipitated? Do you have any idea the amount of damage this is doing and will do before it is over? Do you realize we’re not even close to being done with this, that things are just getting started?
It IS pretty black and white. The cheerleaders remind me of the people I knew back in 99 who were telling me how much their Beanie Babies were worth and how much they were going to make from them. This is the same thing on a different scale. A bigger one.
that was based on fraud, speculation and greed
WRONG.
It was based on easily obtainable credit. The deflation will be based on difficult-to-attain credit.
Fraud, speculation, and greed have always gone on and always will.
Stated income loans were all the rage. The income stated was fraudulent. That’s the “easily obtainable credit” thing you’re talking about.
Lots of houses were purchased for speculation, a much higher percentage than in recent times.
Shall I pull up the many stories about those or can you find them yourself?
It amazes me that so many think a 100% price appreciation in 5 years that was based on fraud, speculation and greed is sustainable.
To me, 100% asset appreciation in 5 years smacks of appraisal fraud and those who provide what little oversight the industry has either looked the other way or were asleep at the wheel.
I also believe it is only a matter of time before appraisal fraud becomes an issue in Portland. When it will matter who knows…but it WILL matter.
Do you realize the economic debacle that this bubble has precipitated? Do you have any idea the amount of damage this is doing and will do before it is over? Do you realize we’re not even close to being done with this, that things are just getting started?
And this speculative debacle continues to touch more and more parts of the economy: now it’s municipal bonds that are blowing up. Municipal bonds – used to be considered the safest of the safe. Now there are margin calls in that space. Who would’a thunk it?
ne_renter: sure it was the eazzzy credit, but there was also plenty of fraud all around. When a mortgage broker first told me about those 80/20 piggy back loans so you didn’t have to put anything down and also avoid PMI the first thing that came out of my mouth was “But isn’t that fraud?!”… he couldn’t believe someone would even ask such a question. Now I think it’s pretty clear it was fraudulent. Then there was all the appraisal fraud…