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Market Tracker

MarkettrackerlogoMarket Tracker is just what the name implies. It is a Prudential Northwest Properties tool that automaticly emails you a monthly report based on up to ten zip codes. The one linked above is for 97210 for February. The cousin to Market Tracker is Property Investment Profile (PIP) which is address specific where Market Tracker is zip code based.

The first Market Tracker after sign up normally goes out within a few minutes of being created, a new Market Tracker report will be received by the client for each zip code on the first Sunday of succeeding months. You can sign up for either by emailing me, sending me a message from of Meebo, or from TurnerRealtors.com. I need a name, up to 10 zip codes and an email address. We do not share your information.

The report contains:

i. New Listings – Actual # for last month, same month last year, Current Year to Date (YTD), and same period Previous Year’s YTD.

ii. % Change – Were there more new listings last month than the same month last year? If so, the percent change will be positive; if not, it will either be zero or negative. Are there more new listings for the current YTD than last year’s same period YTD? That will display either a positive or negative figure, reflecting the percentage increase or decrease in the number of listings. Note: This column has nothing to do with price.
iii.Closed Sales – Home many closed sales were there last month compared to the same month a year ago? How many closed sales have there been for the current YTD and how many for the previous “same period” YTD?

iv. % Change – If there were more closed sales last month versus the same month last year, there will be a positive number, representing the increase of sales over last year for that month. The same logic applies to the Year To Date lines. Note: This column has nothing to do with price.

v.Avg. Price – This column reflects the average price for homes last month, the same month last year, the current YTD and last year’s same YTD.

vi. Median Price – What was the middle closed sales price of all homes sold last month. That is the figure displayed. What was the middle closed sales price of all homes sold the same month last year? What is the middle closed sale price of all homes closed this current YTD, and what was the middle closed sale price of all homes sold during last year, same period YTD?

vii. Days on Market – This number is the average DOM only under the current RMLS number

There are four graphs:

Average Sales Price – This graph provides a one line trend of the average closed sales price for that zip code the past 36 months. Since it is tracking all residential units (not just single family detached houses) many factors can impact on that line. A rising line could mean more expensive homes were sold than modestly priced homes or it could mean the prices of most homes are increasing. It does tell you the average sale price is increasing, is stable, or decreasing.

Rate Of Appreciation – Notice the numbers on the left edge of the graph – those divide the data for that zip code into “Home Price Groups,” such as $200k – 299k, or $500k – 749k. The bottom figures show percentage of change. The two color graphs allow the viewer to then see how residential properties within certain price groups have perform the past 12 months (1 Year) and the past 36 months (3 Years).

Average Sales Price per SF – The numbers on the left side of the chart divide the data for that zip code into “Home Price Groups.” The dollar values along the bottom of the graph displays the $/SF of sold properties. The color coded lines have been labeled “Now” and “Last Year,” but it is somewhat misleading and will be changed very quickly. “Now” actually means the “Previous 12 Months” and “Last Year” really means the “Previous 12 – 24 months.” The data in this chart helps the homeowner better understand the market value of homes within that zip code.

Sales Units – This may be my favorite graph. The numbers along the left edge of the graph still divide the data into “Home Price Groups.” The same color coded lines refer to the same “Previous 12 Months” and “Previous 12 – 24 Months.” The numbers along the bottom of the graph represent the number of actual closed sales there were. As an example, I would find it interesting to know that within the zip code, in the past 12 months, 5 homes sold for over 1.5 million dollars, while 650 sold for between $200k and 299k. Also, comparing the past year with the previous year to that is revealing.

14 Comments on “Market Tracker

  1. “Rate Of Appreciation – Notice the numbers on the left edge of the graph – those divide the data for that zip code into “Home Price Groups,” such as $200k – 299k, or $500k – 749k.”

    How does this work? If a house cost $298k last year and appreciated to $301k this year, then which “Home price group” is it counted in? Do you compare the actual sales price of particular house sold last year vs. their resale price this year?

  2. Leo-

    You provide an example where this is actual appreciation. I’d rather know what happens in the computations for the place that sold last year for $1,100,000 and is resold this year for 999,000. It looks like it adds weight to the top of the $750-999 group.

  3. So Charles, how did your office do in February? Those early numbers aren’t looking too hot. I just hope realtors are prepared for the slow down and haven’t overextended themselves. I still remember my hi-tech spouse’s glory days…trips to Costa Rica, Mexico, Puerto Rico, weekends in San Fransisco, eating at Tuscany Grill on NW 21st, Bread and Ink on Hawthorne and every where in between…then the recession hit. Boy, we had a great time but it sure would have behooved us to set aside about 50K. Ahh, to be young and foolish, again instead of wise and frugal. Is ignorance really bliss?

  4. On a slightly different note Charles, what can a Buyer do to negotiate down commission paid to an agent? We all know that commission are negotiable on the selling side, but what about the buying side? If you wish to start a new thread, keeping this one on topic, that’s fine.

  5. Bearlee, are you asking about numbers Prudential NW Properties as a whole (I don’t know), the West Portland branch (I don’t know) or Jennifer and my numbers (not necessarily polite dinner conversation)? We’re doing fine. I do know that Prudential has increased its market share (though the market may be smaller).

    Kevbo, I will start a new thread on commissions soon. Long story short. It is against Oregon law for an agent to rebate a commission to a nonlicensed person.

  6. The Federal Reserve also tracks the market, and they just released the latest edition of the Beige Book.

    For the Western area: “Activity in residential real estate markets stayed stuck at very low levels during the survey period. Demand for new and existing homes was little changed from the depths reached in recent survey periods, keeping transaction volumes exceptionally low; this caused prices to fall further in the weakest areas and flatten in areas that had exhibited resilience until well into 2007, such as Utah and parts of the Pacific Northwest.”

    http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/beigebook/2008/default.htm

  7. You had mentioned that your office had a great January but now I guess it’s not polite to talk about it.

  8. bearlee-

    We heard about record December sales too, and without going back and getting specific, I think a few other past months were reported as being very good. I was waiting for the personal report myself. I’ll draw my own conclusions about what all of this means.

  9. Good, bad or indifferent month (what are those metrics?), I’ve never mentioned volume or income and that was what the question appeared to be. February was probably indifferent and about the same as 2007.

    We spent a lot of time focusing on getting our remodel project finished up as the buyer’s time-frame (and closing date) is about a month shorter than what we would have done had it not presold. That time doesn’t take away from our existing real estate clients but does slow up prospecting for new clients which every Realtor will tell you is the lifeblood of staying consistent in any market.

  10. Oh, in December you reported an increase in activity. We all know that there is a general slowdown in the Portland housing market–the data from RMLS is clear about that.

    I was surprised that you were able to increase your business as total sales volume contracted. From this it is clear that your market share is rapidly increasing (taking more from a smaller pie=>Much greater part of total market).

    I appreciate your generalized reports, and I use your reported activity as a front-line market barometer, and I really don’t need or want specifics.

  11. I think bearlee is referring to the post on this blog –

    http://www.repdx.com/

    It shows early numbers indicate sales in Feb as down 30% ish YOY.

    Sounds familiar – like maybe So Cal 12 months ago ?

    I shouldn’t think it’ll be too long before PDX is showing a YOY loss no matter how they try and tweak the numbers.

  12. I shouldn’t think it’ll be too long before PDX is showing a YOY loss no matter how they try and tweak the numbers.

    Why is PDX the ONLY metro market with a ~11% discrepancy between asking and sales price? Most markets show a 0-5% discrepancy. I suspect this discrepancy will reach well over 20% before the RMLS finally dares to release even a trickle of negative appreciation.

  13. Because we are the only market that went to a sliding 12 month averaged window for the stats rather than just straight month to month comparison ?

    I suspect portland is 10% in the hole YOY at this point – the fact that sales are going for 90% ish of list would make that seem like a possible situation.

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