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RMLS Market Action Condo Stat and Retraction

I’m not defending the condo graph from the previous post regarding March RMLS Market Action which has a graph showing 34% condo appreciation. Is something is wrong with it? The data is from RMLS, not NAR and I think it is fairly safe to assume that the data is culled from the RMLS database that is fed by Realtors using RMLS to list properties. Unlisted sales would not show. We don’t know what criteria was used to run the searches.
Using Prudential’s Transaction Platform search engine (fed from RMLS) I ran a few searches with very basic criteria: Properties listed as condos in Portland that have sold:

1/1/06-12/31/06
Overall condo sales: 2476
Condo sales over $1M: 26 (1.0%)

1/1/07-12/31/07
Overall condo sales: 2994
Condo sales over $1M: 65 (2.1%)
Change in overall closed condo units: +18%

Transact is designed as a search engine not to create market data reports. It smokes with under 100 records (like the NW Ryan CMA) but I’d still be here this time tomorrow running 5000 records through it. Hell, it will take awhile but I accept the 50 at a time and wait for the next page to reload. Going to be annoyed if it crashes.

An hour has passed:

2006:
High sale $2,188,850
Low sale: $61,900
Average $283,563
DOM Average: 46 days

Two more hours pass:
2007:
High Sale: $2,800,000
Low sale: $15,600 (!)
Average: $313,301
DOM Average: 67 days

I calculate a 9% change in average price. My numbers are based on a full calendar year so should serve as a check to RMLS’s graph, not an indictment of.

Comments are closed because I want the discussion to continue on the previous post as the comments there are valid to this thread. I’ve never done it this way so hopefully it will have the desired intent of keeping the conversation flowing.

****
Added 1:30 PM 4/16/08 from John Weiler at RMLS (with permission):

Hi Charles – I’m the assistant editor of Market Action and I enjoy reading the blog.

Turns out your suspicion of the condo appreciation statistic was right on. When I triple-checked the stat, I found the issue. We typically pull all of our statistics automatically from the database into Excel, but this particular stat is still pulled manually and we, unfortunately, pulled the wrong number from the Home Sales Report (notice the striking similarity between the condo average sale price and the PDX average sale price?).

I will be posting an announcement on RMLSweb shortly – please feel free to join me in spreading the word. Thanks for your vigilance – it is appreciated as we truly want to provide you with the most accurate information possible!

The correct price was $264,300 – a more modest 5% increase.

Joel Weiler
Regional Multiple Listing Service
Communications Assistant

Good job PortlandRealEstateBlog commenters and thank you RMLS for getting to the bottom of the question.

I am going to turn comments on now. I don’t think it was a good choice turning them off this morning. Also added a title which I apparently forgot to do this morning!

18 Comments on “RMLS Market Action Condo Stat and Retraction

  1. that is much better news for those of us who are looking to buy a condo in the next couple of months.

  2. yes…its really terrific news for prospective buyers. once inventory is sucked up prices will go way up. plus condo developers are offering amazing deals. i just looked at a 630 sq ft condo in the heart of belmont for under 200K!

  3. Kindercare…

    I agree the deals are simply amazing. I see at least (2) properties in the heart of belmont/hawethorne with 2 bedrooms and over 800 sf for around 200k. You can probably offer 180K right now and pick em up.

    There are some developers who haven’t woken up yet however like to folks who built those 500sf cracker boxes on 14th and monroe which they are trying to sell for 250k!!!

    They’ll have a problem unloading em for that price when you go down the street and purchase a bigger home for 50K less.

  4. “yes…its really terrific news for prospective buyers. once inventory is sucked up prices will go way up.”

    Yes, Kindercare, it’s really, really great news! I need to make an offer on one of these right away, because 2019, when all of this inventory is “sucked up,” is right around the corner. Everybody, bearlee, PDXRenter, Uncle Git, get your lowball offers in there. There’s only 11 years to go before these deals are gone, gone, gone . . .

  5. I wonder why has realestate purchase become so needlessly complex. There were times not too long ago where one would pick the area they wanted to live in, determine what they wanted in a house and bought the best property they could afford (on 30 year fixed mortgages). What happened to that?

    Will these folks getting caught up in the perpetual analysis paralysis really end up being emotionally and financially well-off 2,5,or 11 years from now? I dont think so.

    Why dont the gloom-lovers stay quiet for a while and let the market adjust itself – they are not buying/selling realestate anyways…

  6. daycare, that time went away with all of the entrance of “the entitlement age”. i want it now. i don’t need to pay my time or dues. oh yeah, i don’t need to worry about paying my mortgage either. and while i’m at it, let’s take out another heloc.

    but the condo numbers do look better. not sure if it’s the right time for me personally, but that’s me.

  7. Kevbo, I would wait and see how the John Ross and Atwater Place shake out. There is no way those developers and investors can sit on so many empty condos for so long. Something has to give, either price reductions or an auction.

  8. The doom and gloom from the bubble believers is just sour grapes from people who have never owned.

    BTW, I’m seriously considering buying a condo at 39th and Belmont. I plan to rent it for a few years and sell after the inevitable rebound.

  9. Daycare, let us know how it goes. I am curious about the financing situation these days especially with the purchase of non-primary residences, aka, rentals, vacation homes. It is my understanding that larger down payments are needed but that’s just what I have read. Real life scenarios are what I want to see.

    Can the rent cover the HOA and PITI?

    How much are the taxes for those?

    When you sell you will get taxed on the gains, no matter how little or big, since it is not your primary residence.’

    I am not being doom and gloom in this post. I am questioning if it is a good investment. It might very well be. But there is a lot to think about.

    I too believe their will be an inevitable rebound (so you are admitting prices have taken a hit?!?!) it’s just a matter of when and can you ride it out?

  10. The doom and gloom from the bubble believers is just sour grapes from people who have never owned.

    You’ve said this before, and maybe there’s a bit of truth to that statment. But you must also know there are “doom and gloomers” that post here who do own; I am one of them. I don’t share the same viewpoints as some of the more radical posters here, but it is my educated opinion that there will be a correction of what I believe to be an overpriced PDX housing market. That doesn’t have anything to do with the fact that I own a home.

    Let’s not make about the have and have-nots, that simply isn’t the issue.

  11. >>The doom and gloom from the bubble believers is just sour grapes from people who have never owned.

    BTW, I’m seriously considering buying a condo at 39th and Belmont. I plan to rent it for a few years and sell after the inevitable rebound.
    << This not my comment! The commenter used my screen name intentionally or accidentally? Charles, you need to do something before this turns into a nuisance and discourages postings.

  12. Doubt if you can use a screen name accidentally…

    Does the comment section require a real email address? Can a email be linked to a screen name which would not allow the post w/out the corresponding screen name and email?

    Anyway to prevent the abuse Charles?

    I use my real email. Charles knows my real name. He has contacted me regarding particular issues, most recently the permit issue. I do want to remain anonymous on the board since I have family and friends in the industry and I do not want to cause them any angst when I post my sometimes harsh opinions though they often share my beliefs.

  13. This not my comment! The commenter used my screen name intentionally or accidentally?

    No it is not Daycare’s comment. It is SE Renter, AKA: Squeezed, SRS, Looking, and latest impersonating Daycare. Not cool.

  14. Hey, at least Charles wasn’t the one using your name, daycare. Clint, the blogmaster over at the Portland Housing Blog not only used my name, he linked it to a porn site.

  15. daycare, posting under your handle was a mistake and i apologize.

    i wanted to determine whether blog owner would correct outlandish and derogatory pro-real estate posts. it is interesting to see the site owner assume that i had nefarious intentions.

    if i had really wanted to mask my identity i would have posted from a random proxy server (as i am doing now).

  16. Also if anyone else wants to post anonymously on this blog go to proxy.com.

    i am currently using http://cw90.com which allows javascript.

  17. i wanted to determine whether blog owner would correct outlandish and derogatory pro-real estate posts. it is interesting to see the site owner assume that i had nefarious intentions.

    Hmmm… What am I missing here? Honesty?

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