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NAR’s Dr. Yun in Portland Last Week

I didn’t attend NAR’s chief economist, Laurence Yun’s, speech last week but here is KOIN’s news story on the event. He is confident that in five years that Portland prices will be up 30 percent. It’s a bold statement and I think I betting on Big Brown on Saturday to win the Triple Crown would have been a safer bet but we all saw how that worked out.

He does retierate the “real estate is local” theme and even brings it further to neighborhood specific. I think we’ve seen that.

24 Comments on “NAR’s Dr. Yun in Portland Last Week

  1. Well, his predecessor David Lereah has recanted on much of his cheerleading since leaving that job.

  2. Has there ever been a year where April’s pending sales were not higher than March pending sales? I thought that was just seasonal variation.

    Compared to last April, pending sales are donw 13%, according to the same report.

  3. Just got to watch the video, not at work anymore. 🙂

    So what’s with the “Dr. Yun” thing? Does calling him a “Dr.” make his words more believable? I’m always suspicious when we reference PhDs as doctor. You don’t see people like Paul Krugman throwing around the Dr. moniker. The people who do are usually crackpots like “Dr.” Michael Savage.

    And what’s up with the guy who said education is what holds people back from buying houses? You think prices aren’t a bit of a deterrent?

    Bottom line: If the PDX metro market was as healthy as the shills of KOIN say it is the realtors wouldn’t have to start a website to educate all of us ignorant hicks who still believe that spending 300K for a 2BR 1BA shitbox that needs 100K worth of work is insanity.

    The delusion in this city is almost surreal. Maybe the RE folks really do believe a protective bubble surrounds Portland and that the bubble never really happened here. I wonder how much the Oregon Association of Realtors paid KOIN for that puff piece?

  4. Dr. Yun? When will the arrogance end. Dude is as much a doctor as Dr. Dre.

  5. The spike in pendings was largely due to REO sales. Obviously this is extremely bad news for housing prices.

  6. Lawrence Yun’s bio from NAR’s website…
    http://www.realtor.org/research/chief_economist_bio:

    Lawrence Yun is Chief Economist and Senior Vice President at the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. He writes regular columns on real estate market trends, creates NAR’s forecasts, and participates in many economic forecasting panels, including Blue Chip and the Harvard University Industrial Economist Council. He regularly appears on CNBC and Bloomberg TV and is a frequent speaker at Real Estate conferences throughout the United States and abroad. USA Today recently listed him among the top 10 economic forecasters in the country.

    Dr. Yun has been with NAR since 2000. Prior to that, he worked as an economic consultant to the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs and the U.S. Department of Education. While a research associate at the University of Maryland for three years, Yun developed the graduate economics curriculum for and taught free market economics in the former Soviet Union as that country transitioned from communism to a free-market system.

    Dr. Yun received his undergraduate degree from Purdue University and earned his Ph.D. from the University of Maryland at College Park.

  7. Yes, I agree that he’s a PhD but calling oneself “Dr.” too often has an air of lending legitimacy when none is there. I’ve worked for legitimate PhDs in academia who didn’t use that title so blatantly. It also doesn’t make him prescient as to the future of the real estate market.

    Seeing that he helped the Soviets transition from communism to their savage form of capitalism helps me understand his stance on real estate a bit better, too.

    Still, it sounds a lot like “Dr. Laura” to me. 🙂

  8. Give it up Naysayer. His name is very fitting as he is one of the Nation’s top ten spin doctors.

  9. What’s your point, Charles? A PhD does not make anyone unbiased, regardless of what it’s in or where it’s from. Some of the biggest shills around have PhDs. He works for NAR. Isn’t that enough to take anything he has to say with a truckload of salt?

  10. Got a friend whose full name is Daniel Ray Smith. He goes by Dr. Smith because those are his initials.

  11. Note to self: never employ anyone with a PHD from U of Maryland if Dr Yun is their best and brightest.

  12. Hey, here’s a Realtor that will put your house in the MLS for $350, instead of having somebody sock it to you for 6%.

    http://www.nuwaymls.com

    So on a $400,000 house thats a saving of $24,000 which you can use $5000 of to get about 16 hours of service from an attorney who can give you real legal advice on any contract or paperwork questions you have. As opposed to some bozo real estate agent who gives you nothing but disclaimers, and constantly advises you that they’re not an attorney or an accountant. I guess that $24,000 is for doing the MLS data entry and putting a sign in your yard. Oh, and if you pay the full 6% maybe you can get your flyers waxed!

    Now that the Justice Department has won round one of its battle with the NAR, and discount brokers won’t be discriminated against in the MLS’s any more I’m betting we see commissions come way down.

    I know Charles is going to say, Hey youre going to need to give the buyer agent 2.5%. Well isnt it about time buyers started paying those people? Cause those agents know that if they cost buyers anymore cash out of pocket than a cup of
    coffee theyd be shown the door

  13. Welcome back Teddy, aka Mr. Thrifty.

    Just stitting down for a meeting but anyone think this should be deleted as spam promoting another site?

  14. Delete away, Charles. It’s your blog, and its no different than another legitimate broker coming on here and posting a link to their website. Completely classless and inappropriate.

  15. Well isn’t it about time buyers started paying those people?

    Yup, I’ve said it before. Listing agents and sellers shouldn’t be determining buyer’s agents pay. It is all semantics because at the end of the day the buyer pays. You’ll see it more and more as Buyer Service Agreements become more common.

  16. “It is all semantics because at the end of the day the buyer pays.”

    Well, it’s not entirely semantics because most buyers pay with a mortgage. Under the current system, the buyer pays the 2.5% by including it in the price of the house and financing it over 30 years. If you change the system so that the buyer pays his agent directly, then the buyer would be out 2.5% at the time of the transaction.

    You could argue that the buyer could simply reduce his downpayment by 2.5% in order to pay the buyer’s agent. But for buyers who only have a 5% cash downpayment, that would seriously compromise their ability to get a loan. Even buyers who have a 20% downpayment may get impacted by PMI or higher interest rates. I think a change like this would take a significant number of buyers out of an already shrinking market.

    I’m not arguing that the buyer isn’t paying under the current system, or that it wouldn’t be better if the buyer was paying the buyer’s agent directly. I just think it’s a little more than semantics.

  17. $100,000 house. 6% listing co-op listing. There is $94k net to the seller. Buyer takes loan on $100k.

    $100,00 house. Seller pays 3% to listing agent. Price should now be $97k and seller still nets $94k. Buyer pays 3% to buyer’s agent. Buyer takes loan of $100k (it would actually be $2910 in commission on both sides but the simplification illustrates my point).

  18. Charles: With house price of $97k, the buyer will not be able to get a loan for $100k. The bank won’t loan him more than the price of the house. That’s why I think it’s more than semantics: The buyer will not be able to roll his agent’s commission into the mortgage, and that impacts his ability to buy.

  19. My point was more that buyers agents should probably be paid hourly, somewhere in the range of what a good administrative assistant would get, like the $19 to $23 range.

    Now I know what realtors will say, well we can’t get enough clients to make a living at that wage. Well, if 3/4 of the realtors in PDX dissappeared and the ones that were left worked 40 hours a week – actually working not 35 hours or self promotion and 5 hours actual work – we’d have a work force of knowledgable and practiced real estate workers, who actually provided some value at a reasonable price. The only reason we’re left with the antiquated model still in place is that the NAR and MLS’s nationwide have worked tirelessly to make sure that anyone that wanted the brokerage industry to be anything other than a parasite on the ass of the american comsumer was immediately crushed.

    Everybody remember the old stock brokerage model? Anyone want to go back to paying $150 a trade? Thats were real estate is right now. The Scottrade version of real estate brokerage is on its way, thanks to the Justice Department forcing the NAR to allow online discount brokerages equal MLS access.

  20. It should be interesting to see how the Justice Department verdict will work out. My mind believes it will cause commissions and/or real estate fees charged to buyers and sellers to be reduced too.

    Regarding buyers having to pay their own fees to agents, I believe that would change depending on the market. There will be some motivated sellers that will pay those fees in order to get their houses sold. Some sellers will continue to believe their house is too special and there’s no need to do anything extra to sell it.

  21. Well, at least he’s consistent. Problem is, if Florida rises 20% by 2013 they’ll be even.

    I once had an Amway salesman tell me I could make $1000/week selling soap, too.

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