It has been said before that real estate is local. One market does not necessarily predict another. National numbers have not reflected Portland; Portland was definitely late to the “party” as property values fell. But what about within a single market itself? Ryan Frank of the Oregonian published this graphic on his Front Porch blog. It is used here with his permission. Click on the graphic to enlarge.
Even within Portland, what is going on in one area is not a representation of the overall Portland housing market. The spread between the hardest hit areas and those actually seeing some appreciation is nearly 12 points. From the Oregonian I put this data together (which is sourced from RMLS). The spread confirms much of the anecdotal “close-in has done better than the suburbs.” Does Location, Location, Location serve as the matra to this or are markets that have done okay late to Portland housing decline?
| NW Washington County | 2007 | $ 385,000 | |
| 2008 | $ 375,000 | -2.6% | |
| West Portland | 2007 | $ 379,000 | |
| 2008 | $ 400,000 | 5.5% | |
| Beaverton/Aloha | 2007 | $ 262,500 | |
| 2008 | $ 252,000 | -4.0% | |
| Tigard/Wilsonville | 2007 | $ 340,500 | |
| 2008 | $ 325,000 | -4.6% | |
| Lake Oswego/West Linn | 2007 | $ 465,000 | |
| 2008 | $ 455,000 | -2.2% | |
| Oregon City/Canby | 2007 | $ 304,000 | |
| 2008 | $ 286,000 | -5.9% | |
| Milwaukie/Clackamas | 2007 | $ 301,000 | |
| 2008 | $ 290,000 | -3.7% | |
| Gresham/Troutdale | 2007 | $ 260,000 | |
| 2008 | $ 247,000 | -5.0% | |
| Southeast Portland | 2007 | $ 251,700 | |
| 2008 | $ 249,900 | -0.7% | |
| Northeast Portland | 2007 | $ 283,000 | |
| 2008 | $ 283,500 | 0.2% | |
| North Portland | 2007 | $ 251,300 | |
| 2008 | $ 253,000 | 0.7% |
Thanks again to Ryan Frank and the Oregonian for the graphic.
Just statistical noise — next year all of these areas will be down double digits.
I have been looking around the Happy Valley and Sunnyside areas just east of I-205. I am seeing new/newer construction for dirt cheap (relative term), ie, 3,000 square foot homes for 450K that previously went for $700K. I am curious to see how that will impact the close-in areas. Sure you have to commute a little bit but geez, look at what you get. And if your work is everywhere, ie, healthcare, your commute may not be much. And look at Portland’s overcrowded schools…
The tanking prices in the suburbs will no doubt put pressure on the close-in areas.
I guess what bothers me about this blog is that you are quick to post some one’s “Buy Now” link and we have to pull your teeth to get you to comment on it. But you seem to have little problem elaborating on not so positive news, ie, ‘real estate is HYPER local’.
Why not talk about some of Ryan Frank’s more recent posts?
http://blog.oregonlive.com/frontporch/
What Wells Fargo economist thinks of Portland
http://blog.oregonlive.com/frontporch/2008/09/what_wells_fargo_economist_thi.html#more
Oregon’s housing market still hasn’t found bottom
http://blog.oregonlive.com/frontporch/2008/09/oregons_housing_market_still_h.html#more
I think Charles posts an excellent mix of ideas from different sources, and he’s kept this blog open for public comment through thick and thin which I think is commendable. He used my post concerning the Big Look Task Force meeting as part of a blog entry, and what I wrote wasn’t exactly a love letter to the Oregon real estate community. I haven’t agreed with everything Charles has ever written, but trying to paint him as someone whos running a manipulative “Buy Now” campaign isn’t fair.
I hear you, Mr. Thrifty, but I still believe there is an inherent bias given that his livelihood depends on people buying and selling their homes no matter what the market conditions.
Back to Ramsey…anyone catch this article:
http://www.katu.com/news/business/29620639.html
Millions spend half of income on housing
…Ray is one of more than 7.5 million people – almost 15 percent of American homeowners with a mortgage – who are spending half of their income or more on housing costs, according to 2007 data released Tuesday by the U.S. Census Bureau. That is up from nearly 7.1 million the year before…
…Traditionally, the government and most lenders consider a homeowner spending 30 percent or more of their income on housing costs to be financially burdened. But that definition now covers almost 38 percent of American homeowners with a mortgage – 19 million of them…
So whats the answer bearlee? How about you advocate for an actionable position. What should peoples plan be right?
“What should peoples plan be right?”
Sorry, not comprehending your question. Please elaborate.
“What should peoples plan be right?”
Sorry, I do not comprehend the question. Please elaborate.
If this is all about gathering information and being informed maybe you all should add Salvador Del Cid’s blog to your list for local RE info.
Sal Del Cid takes a different approach to his RE blog, not to say that either is better, just different. Check out his most recent post regarding August’s pending and expired listings. The stats help paint a picture of the current market though it would be nice to see other months and compare YOY.
http://ownaportlandhome.blogspot.com/
Another important development regarding RMLS, DOM is going to be now accumulative, AKA TMT, Total Market Time. See Sal’s Sept. 17th post of stats regarding this important change for buyers.
I can’t please all of the people all of the time. Don’t really try either. I posted about the changes to RMLS Total Market Time on September 11th: https://www.portlandrealestateblog.com/realestate/2008/09/changes-to-rmls.html and then talked about it more when RMLS Market Action came out a few days later. I’ve said before that I am not a regular reader of other Portland real estate related blogs because I want to be writing my own stuff. I looked at Sal’s blog and he’s doing a great job.
Coming up with new and interesting topics isn’t easy. There have been 521 of them. Of those, maybe 10 have been reader suggested topics.
I guess what bothers me about this blog is that you are quick to post some one’s “Buy Now” link and we have to pull your teeth to get you to comment on it. But you seem to have little problem elaborating on not so positive news, ie, ‘real estate is HYPER local’.
Kind of ironic, isn’t it? A Realtor elaborating on not so positive news and advising you to take “Buy Now” with a grain of salt and do your own research. 🙂
Bias? Of course my livelihood is based on people buying and selling homes. But just because the market is down doesn’t mean it is going to stop cold; the profile of the buyer and seller may have changed some, but the market continues to be a market.
Charles, I was advising others to read Sal’s blog to assist in getting a bigger picture of real estate. It’s all about gathering info, ay?!