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National Housing Market Improving. Portland to Follow?

case-shiller-feb-09There is a familiar refrain that, Portland real estate trails the national real estate market by months if not years. The national market moves and Portland eventually follows. The graph, which compares the Portland market (PORX) to the 10 (CSXR) and 20 (SPCS20R) national indexes, suggests that that’s not necessarily true.  The appear to mirror each other pretty closely.

case-shiller-feb-citiesEven when taking the previously hot markets of San Francisco, Miami, and San Diego compared to Portland, the ups and downs are close but not as extreme.

Can Portlanders find comfort in recent optimistic real estate news?  Yesterday, it was reported that pending sales are up 3.2 % nationally. Even NAR economist, Lawrence Yun, isn’t willing to call it a bottom but its some of the first positive news to come out of the housing market in a while. The Dow jumped 214 points yesterday.

4 Comments on “National Housing Market Improving. Portland to Follow?

  1. “The national market moves and Portland eventually follows. The graph, which compares the Portland market (PORX) to the 10 (CSXR) and 20 (SPCS20R) national indexes, suggests that that’s not necessarily true. The appear to mirror each other pretty closely.”

    I don’t understand why you say this. The graph clearly shows that the CSXR and SPCS20R reached their peaks in August 2006, whereas PDX reached its peak in August 2007. This demonstrates precisely that the national market moved, and Portland eventually followed. The comparisons against San Francisco, Miami, and San Diego show exactly the same thing: Portland’s peak happens after the peaks of other cities.

    Are you saying that PDX “mirrors” national values because the absolute value of the housing price index happens to be similar right now? The absolute values of the HPI cannot be used to meaningfully compare markets – they’re normalized to equal 100 in January 2000.

  2. Leo’s correct. My analysis of the graph is off. I had a short circuit of logic this morning where I wrote the first few lines and then decided to create a couple of graphs supporting what I wrote (which they do). Then for some reason decided that the graphs didn’t support what I wrote and then headed down the wrong road.

    Restating where I was intending to go: “Portland lagged about a year behind the national decline. Will the bottom of the Portland market lag a year behind the national market in its recovery?”

    Side note: the market took back 16 points of yesterday’s Dow Jones gain today.

  3. Non refi mortgage applications are up too.

    Charles, what percentage of realtors do you figure got blown out of the water during the ongoing recession? My guess is close to 40%. Also, do you think the people who called it quits will be back, or were most of those who left just hacks who won’t be able to pony up the 3 G’s or so it takes to get back in the game? Finally, I heard some talk the other day about Oregon adopting stadards for real estate agent education similar to what CA has, including having to earn college credits instead of using these online schools, whats the word on the street?

  4. In January of 2007 I wrote stating that the barriers to entry for real estate are too low. I am all for higher requirements to entry (easy for me to say as I am already here but I do think it would improve the industry). I don’t know the exact numbers of Realtors and mortgage brokers that have left their industries is probably close if not over your 40% number.

    I just scanned through Oregon House Bill 2900 which pertains to Oregon real estate licensing but don’t see an increase in education/testing as a requirement Oregon House Bill 2900.

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