Has the Portland housing market caught up with other markets? For the last couple of years we have all heard words to the effect of, “Portland reached its peak about a year after other markets and therefore will lag a year behind finding bottom.” You can’t argue the first part. Phoenix had its highest Case Shiller Index number in June 2006; Los Angeles in September 2006; San Diego in June 2006 and San Francisco in May 2006. Both Seattle and Portland hit their highest points in July of 2007.
If, and it is an if, the market has turned, the bottom for all six cities was within a three month band between March and May of this year. The counter to the second part of the quote above was that “Portland real estate didn’t rise as much as the other markets so doesn’t have as far to fall.” The entire Case Shiller Index was reset to 100 in January 2000. Phoenix is at levels not seen since July/August of 2000 where Portland is at June 2005 pricing. Portland has had two consecutive months of positive gain in the Index. That happened in April/May of 2008 before reeling off eleven straight months of losses.
Are we looking at the bottom?