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Can RMLS Market Action Predict Case Shiller?

2009-Portland-Market-StatsThe Case Shiller Index is released on the last Tuesday of each month (tomorrow).  The Index has a three month lag; tomorrow’s report will tell us about September.  RMLS Market Action comes out midway through the following month; we already have data through October.  Without a massive amount of statistics, does RMLS Market Data predict what the Case Shiller Index for the Portland real estate market look like?  I don’t think so.

The graph ab0ve with inventory levels makes the average sales price and Case Shiller Index (for Portland) hard to discern so the graph below removes inventory but is the same otherwise.

2009-Portland-Market-Stats2

8 Comments on “Can RMLS Market Action Predict Case Shiller?

  1. Interesting to see those numbers against each other. I’ve often wondered how they would stack up. I’m not surprised that there would be such a disconnect, though. Our methodology is far different from Case Shiller. One of the main differences is that our numbers don’t include the Clark County area, whereas Case Shiller does. Thanks for putting this together, Charles!

  2. It would great if RMLS posted the actual number of homes on the market with the ‘inventory’. If sales drop off big time in December due to the rush to buy to beat the $8K credit the ‘inventory’ might spike which might give the impression that lots of folks just put their homes on the market in December when actually sales dropped.

    Does that sound confusing?!

  3. Hi Guys,
    Interesting to see those numbers against each other. I’ve often wondered how they would stack up. If sales drop off big time in December due to the rush to buy to beat the $8K credit the ‘inventory’ might spike which might give the impression that lots of folks just put their homes on the market in December when actually sales dropped.

  4. Interesting to see those numbers against each other. I took some data from RMLS Market Action to see if it gave any indicator of what today’s Case Shiller repo… would look like and also reposted two articles written in advance of today’s report.

  5. Wow, is there a creative program out there that quotes previous comments to make it NOT look like spam…gobransomhomes…you would think they’d at least quote a more optimistic commenter?

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