Portland real estate housing inventory has been roughly between 10 and 11 months for the last eight months with the exception of December’s blip. The general thought is that six months is equilibrium between a buyer’s and seller’s market so we’re still a buyer’s market by that standard. Whether or not you should list your home for sale now depends on your situation. Some of our listing appointments end with us advising clients to wait out the market because in all likelihood it will be better later than now.
The Portland real estate market continues its decline. As the average and median sale prices lost ground but “comparing January-February 2011 with the same period in 2010 shows closed sales increased 5.4%. Pending sales were down 8.3%, and new listings decreased by 23.6%.” (RMLS)
RMLS uses a five county area to define Portland. In the next day or two I will tabulate the the more localized data that makes up the city of Portland.
Here’s the ling to the complete Portland Metro RMLS Market Action.
“has been between 10 and 11 months ”
11.3 is more than 11.
Yes, put the “Bubble Head” filter on but I have to ask what will make this market any better any time soon or later?
I see interest rates holding but they are only going up from here. There is talk on the Hill of eliminating the interest on mortgage deduction. There is also talk of dismantling Freddie and Fannie. Yes, just talk but something will have to be done to help prevent future ugly bubbles.
What I am witnessing in my neck of the woods, Mount Tabor, is the upper end >$500K just sitting, mid range being turned into rentals, and the lower end moving very slowly and I understand from a realtor friend is that there have been some sweet foreclosure deals.
What I don’t know is what’s happening with lending. I have seen numerous “sale pending” homes go back on the market due to I don’t know. Higher FHA standards putting a kink in sales? I’m assuming there isn’t much creative financing these days, ie 80/20’s, ARM’s, etc which I hope is the new norm.
From my stand point as potential buyer, affordability is still an issue. Prices are just too high especially when looking at what is happening to property taxes and utilities. And let’s not forget price of gas…location, location, location.
The question I would like to ask potential sellers, “can you afford your asking price?”
In the past 26 months, inventory has been above 10 months for month than half the time. For all but one month, inventory has been above 7 months. The low point was October 2009 at 6.5 months.
People tell me this is a buyers’ market, but I keep seeing prices go down. How can it be a buyers’ market if prices keep going down?
I think the term “buyer’s” market is more of a snapshot of now, not the historical or future market. Buyer’s appear to have an advantage today and probably will continue to until inventory drops. In a seller’s market we see more competition of for listings, listings selling over asking and fewer options for buyers. These things still happen in hot neighborhood and with accurately priced houses but far less frequently. If prices do fall we won’t revise today’s buyer’s market to a seller’s market it will just make the that new market a better buyer’s market than today’s.
We’re having very frank conversations with our sellers/potential seller about their goals. “If I can’t get my price, I’ll rent it.” That makes sense for many. Sometimes goals change. We had that conversation with a seller who had a minimum above what the showing feedback was suggesting. It’s now listed with another agent more than $50,000 below that stated minimum. The desire/need to sell has superseded not being able to get that original desired price and renting it out.
I could repackage the question to sellers, “Can you afford not to accurately price your home if the market shows you are positioned high and the market appears to be losing ground if you indeed do want to sell?” The balance of selling and leaving money on the table is one of the hardest things we advise on.
Why are ‘months’ used to describe a buyers’ market if it’s more about ‘now?’
‘Months’ are used to describe the listing inventory. The number of months it would take to sell all the listings at the current rate of sales.
How many months are available ‘now’ is an indicator of what sort of market we are in now. Six months of inventory has been the traditional equilibrium. Neither the buyer or seller is considered to have an advantage or upper hand. We should be asking if there is going to be a new normal that replaces six months as that tip point?
What advantage do I have as a buyer if the months of inventory are high?