RMLS Market Action for April 2011 was released yesterday with mostly positive month-over-month news. I consider a .1 month drop in inventory a positive even though mathematically a loss. The average sales price went up from $261,000 to $267,300 and the median price also increased. The average sales price over the last year has declined 5.2%.
April, May and June were the strongest months of 2010 Portland real estate with a sharp drop off in July. In previous years May, June and July saw the highest number of closings in a given year. The difference for 2010 can most likely be attributed to the expiration of the First Time Buyer Credit on April 30th and the need to close those transactions (note the spike in inventory from 7.3 to 10.8 between June and July last year).
Days on market for the metro area is 153 days. In April of 2007 it was 58 days and inventory was at 4.4 months. Amazingly 4.4 months was the 5th highest level in the 28 months proceeding that report. In the last 28 months inventory the lowest inventory was 6.5 months in October ’09 which was down from the recent record of 19.2 months in January of the same year. Inventory has not been below 7 months since.
I’ll update the local City of Portland inventory that we have been tracking since last year as soon as possible. Market Action’s Portland Metro report is made up of a five county area. We’ve seen that the close in Portland areas have tracked consistently below the Metro inventory.
In regards to the 153 days on market, the April 2007 number of 58 days was different measure. Could you explain the difference and reconcile between the two different measures?
Good point Tim. In 2007, the days on market was calculated using only the existing active listing. If a listing was canceled or expired and relisted with a new RMLS number it set the days on market counter back to zero. Now days on market are cumulative. If a listing is canceled or expired for less than thirty one days the counter keeps running. I wrote this post when the change was made
Additionally in 2011 RMLS numbers are assigned randomly rather than sequentially assigned so “refreshing” a listing by canceling it and relisting no longer works to fool the system!
When you throw out 2010 as an anomaly (tax credit):
–Pending sales increased 8% compared to 2009 and 22% compared to April 2008. (2005 vs 1860 vs 1637)
–Closed sales increased 24% compared to 2009 and 36% compared to April 2008. (1611 vs 1302 vs 1184).
–Inventory is down almost 15% from last year (14,748 from 17,279) and is at its lowest level in four years.
More and more it seems inventory is creeping down. many of the short sales in the Eugene area have offers on them. I think the general public is now getting used to the idea of short sales.
Again i wanted ti raise the Tim’s point here that as you said with reference to 153 days, the April 2007 number of 58 days was different measure.
would love if you can explain this phenomena~
Abu- did you read comment number 2?
I have read message #2, and I read the information in the link, and yet I still have no idea on how to compare the two. Could you simply take the 153 days and restate it so that it’s directly comparable to the 58 days?
Next is the bunk in message #3. According to the RMLS report pending sales April 2008 was 2070 not 1637. Similarly, closed sales in April 2008 was 1582, not 1184.
Then there is the discussion about inventory being down. Simply put, values are so low. I estimate the my local neighborhood is down 25% from my purchase price, but just down the street there are some town homes selling for about 50% off. And when I say 25%, let me be clear: It’s tough to compete with foreclosures, short sales, and so on. WTF is a seller frustrated by low prices to do? Is it any surprise closed sales are up as prices keep going down?
Tim is right.
Closed sales in April 2009 were 1184, 26% lower than April 2011
Pending sales in April 2009 were 1637, 18% lower than April 2011.
The point remains, throw out the tax credit year and 2011 looks like an upswing, not a down.
I have read message #2, and I read the information in the link, and yet I still have no idea on how to compare the two. Could you simply take the 153 days and restate it so that it’s directly comparable to the 58 days?
Tim, I don’t think there is a way to restate cumulative days on market (current system) to days on market (old system). The new replaced the old as an improvement to the system. I went back to the August 2008 Market Action and you can see that there is no comparison between Aug. 2007 & 2008.
August 2008, the first month of the new system, had a cumulative days on market of 121 days. The latest report is 153 days.
Let’s dispel Hank’s wrong information.
1. Closed sales in April 2009 is not 1184.
2. Pending sales in April 2009 is not 1637.
Correct information, as reported by RMLS:
Closed sales in April 2009 is 1302
Pending sales in April 2009 is 1860
What I find disturbing is that the median price in April 2009 was 13.6% higher, and the average price in April 2009 was 9.5% higher than the April 2011 prices, yet at the same time to sell has increased.
I went to a store the other day with a really good sale, and guess what, the merchandise was flying out of the store. There were so many buyers, I didn’t get what I wanted.
Generally when a home is priced low, it sells right away, yet as prices continue go lower and lower, homes take longer to sell. Why is this so?