Portland’s 2012 Real Estate Market Will Either Go Up or Down

free clip art crytal ballPredictions for Portland’s real estate market is that it will either go up or down.  Or be flat.  Depends on who you ask.  Housing Predictor gives their 2012 prediction:

Portland should witness an increase in sales in 2012 but a weak job market and lay-offs among high-tech firms in the region will keep home sales, including condos sluggish. Portland is forecast to sustain another year of falling home prices, netting 5.1% less.

Back in October we linked to a Wall Street Journal interactive graphic with data from Fiserv Case Shiller that predicts Portland property values will increase 5.9%.  The two sources have a 10% spread and there are so many variables that crystal ball predictions are risky at best.  What we’re telling our potential clients now is that the market may remain mostly flat or even lose a little on the short-term but that with a long-term view (more than a few years) there are lots of reasons for optimism.  As a buyer how you personally weigh each of the factors will determine if this is a “Buy Now” market for you or whether the sidelines are still the place to be.

  • Interest rates
  • (Un)employment rates
  • Size of shadow inventory- homes that will be foreclosed on or that are already owned by banks but not yet on the market
  • Local and national politics- election year
  • Strength of rental market
  • Your personal feeling about the market- your gut
  • How you qualify for a loan now versus working on your credit, building a larger down payment, etc

As a seller you have to weigh the factors above but you may not have a choice based on hardship or other events.  I started to write a list of things to consider as a seller but quickly realized that there a too many situational factors which in list format are either to vague, don’t apply or are too complex depending on the individual situation.  The best advice is going to come from having a conversation so that an educated decision can be made.  That’s true for a buyer too.  Decide on a goal and pick a strategy to get there.

2 Comments on “Portland’s 2012 Real Estate Market Will Either Go Up or Down

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  2. I’ve never not seen a home inspector call out the Federal Pacific panel. I have seen electricians say that they’re fine in general but should be replaced for peace of mind.

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