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Portland Case Shiller Up, Again

The Case Shiller Index for Portland continued to climb in August. The market looks much better than it did last year but history also paints a cautionary tale. The graph below shows the Index for Portland for the last two years. We’re showing the change from the previous month and the change from 12 months prior.  What gives us pause is that last year the market climbed through September before logging six months of consecutive losses.  On the plus side, in August 2011 the market was 11 points below August 2010.  This August the Index is up five points since this time last year and the highest it has been since October 2010.

All of that said, the Index tend to give back in the winter months so we shouldn’t jump into the life rafts at the first sign  of a dip.  Was March 2011’s 129.01 Index the bottom?  During the seasonal decline last year mentioned above, the Index lost seven points.  We have a 12 point cushion now.

Index Prior Month Prior Year
January 2011 135.8 -2.43 -11.49
February 2011 133.66 -2.14 -10.03
March 2011 132.67 -0.99 -10.94
April 2011 132.84 0.17 -13.41
May 2011 134.5 1.66 -13.48
June 2011 134.52 0.02 -14.21
July 2011 135.8 1.28 -12.53
August 2011 135.91 0.11 -11.11
September 2011 136.1 0.19 -8.2
October 2011 135.44 -0.66 -6.72
November 2011 133.26 -2.18 -6.66
December 2011 132.76 -0.5 -5.47
January 2012 129.96 -2.8 -5.84
February 2012 129.6 -0.36 -4.06
March 2012 129.01 -0.59 -3.66
April 2012 131.62 2.61 -1.22
May 2012 135.09 3.47 0.59
June 2012 138.51 3.42 3.99
July 2012 140.12 1.61 4.32
August 2012 140.8 0.68 4.89

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