The Case Shiller Index for Portland continued to climb in August. The market looks much better than it did last year but history also paints a cautionary tale. The graph below shows the Index for Portland for the last two years. We’re showing the change from the previous month and the change from 12 months prior.  What gives us pause is that last year the market climbed through September before logging six months of consecutive losses.  On the plus side, in August 2011 the market was 11 points below August 2010.  This August the Index is up five points since this time last year and the highest it has been since October 2010.

All of that said, the Index tend to give back in the winter months so we shouldn’t jump into the life rafts at the first sign  of a dip.  Was March 2011’s 129.01 Index the bottom?  During the seasonal decline last year mentioned above, the Index lost seven points.  We have a 12 point cushion now.