The loss of .31 of a point in November 2012 ended seven straight months of gains for Portland’s Case Shiller Index. The Index, at 142.13 is nearly nine points higher than it was this time last year and closely matches February and October 2010, and November 2004. The Index is up 12.5 points (10%) since it’s most current low in March of 2012. With each passing month we can become a little more confident that March was the bottom of this current market. That’s not to say that we are totally out of the woods yet. While interest rates are expected to remain low in the foreseeable future there are any number of things that could torpedo a recovery. A sustainable market can probably handle between four to seven percent annual appreciation. Assuming the market adds six percent a year it will be May 2017 by the time we reach the August 2007 peak of 186— a 10 year recovery.
It’s always important to remember that the Case Shiller Index is released the last Tuesday of the month, lags 60 days and defines Portland Metro as the seven county MSA.